SMM3, 8 Feb: the overnight US index concussion rebounded, basically recovering its intraday decline, but was affected by yesterday's White House personnel turmoil as a whole. although the ADP data improved in the evening, the impact was moderate, as the market focus remained on the trade war storm. The dollar closed at 89.558, down slightly. Concerns about the stability of the dollar's rebound and the outbreak of a trade war have led to a collective decline in basic metals and a collective drift of green in and out of the market. Shanghai aluminum and lead fell more than 1 per cent in the inner market and nearly 1 per cent in Shanghai copper; LME aluminum fell nearly 2 per cent and LME lead fell more than 2 per cent, with LME aluminium falling to a nearly three-month low.
China's foreign exchange reserves in February were $3.13448 trillion, less than expected at $3.16 trillion and down $26.975 billion, or 0.85 per cent, from the previous $3.16146 trillion, according to data on China's foreign exchange reserves released yesterday afternoon. China's foreign exchange reserves fell below $3 trillion in January 2017 and have rebounded for the 12th month in a row.
In February, the cross-border capital flow and the trading behavior of domestic and foreign subjects were generally stable, and the supply and demand of foreign exchange market continued the basic balance pattern. As a result of rising volatility in international financial markets, adjustments in exchange rates and asset prices, the decline of major non-US dollar currencies against the US dollar and the correction in asset prices, the size of foreign exchange reserves declined slightly.
Eurozone GDP data showed that eurozone GDP growth in the fourth quarter was in line with expectations. Eurozone GDP grew 2.7 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the same as in the third quarter and at its fastest pace in a decade. In addition, GDP in the 28 EU countries rose 2.6 per cent from a year earlier. After the release of the data, the euro did not fluctuate much.
ADP data hit hard in the evening, with the ADP report showing that ADP employment in the United States rose 235000 in February, better than expected, and that ADP employment was revised to 244000 in January.
The vice president of ADP Employment data points out that the labor market continues to grow and that sustained earnings in most industries are expected to make it difficult for employers to find qualified employees soon at this rate of employment growth as consumer spending rises.
U. S. ADP employment data, known as "small non-agricultural", the data are strong, suggesting that Friday's non-farm payrolls growth may also be beautiful; However, as the US job market has continued to perform strongly in recent years, close to full employment, the Fed's focus has shifted to wage growth, which is directly related to inflation. Sluggish inflation is the biggest obstacle to the Fed's acceleration of interest rate hikes; As a result, the strong ADP data provided a limited boost to the dollar.
In addition, there has been a general bearish view of the dollar recently, as the threat of a trade war has been lingering. Overnight, White House chief economic adviser Cohen, the White House's leading advocate of free trade, announced his resignation, raising concerns that Trump would push ahead with the tariff plan and pose the risk of a trade war.
Meanwhile, U.S. trade account data for January showed U.S. exports fell 1.3 percent to $200.9 billion in January, while imports were flat at $257.5 billion.
The United States had a trade deficit of $56.6 billion in January and an expected deficit of $55 billion, with the previous value revised from a deficit of $53.1 billion to a deficit of $53.9 billion. This is the highest level since the trade deficit hit $60.2 billion in October 2008. Meanwhile, the U. S. trade deficit has risen for the fifth month in a row.
The analysis said that as the economy is basically in a state of full employment, the stimulus to demand from tax reform may instead benefit US importers, leading to a widening trade deficit. In addition, the US government has recently threatened to apply high import tariffs on some industrial raw materials, which, when implemented, will be transmitted to the manufacturing and processing industries, leading to a rise in the cost of US exports and a further widening of the trade deficit.
Us EIA crude inventories rose 2.408 million barrels in the week to March 2 and are expected to increase by 2.1903 million barrels, according to EIA crude inventory data released late in the day. Gasoline stocks fell by 788000 barrels per 10,000 barrels and are expected to increase by 500300 barrels. Refined oil refining stocks fell by 559000 barrels and are expected to fall by 684400 barrels. Oil prices rebounded in the short term after the data were released.
Zero hedge, a prominent financial blog, said crude oil inventories rose slightly more than expected, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell, with crude oil and gasoline futures rising in the short term after the data were released; but US crude oil production continued to hit new highs, limiting the rise in oil prices.
Important overnight financial data are shown in the following table:
