SMM3, 1 March:
Copper: today, Lun Copper opened at US $6930 / ton. after opening, Lun Copper briefly explored low and then went up, reaching a high of US $6965 / tonne. At this time, short positions came into the market and pressed, Lun Copper then leaked, to near the daily average of US $6941 / ton, Lun Copper was temporarily supported. After entering the European session, as the US dollar rose, the support of Lun Copper fell below the daily moving average and accelerated its decline, once as low as US $6879 / tonne, as of 17 + 55, Lun Cu was at US $6887 / ton, and US crude oil was at US $61.38 / barrel. The dollar index was at 90.765. Today, Lun copper continued the pullback trend, week Lun copper has fallen more than 3%, Lun copper broken and far from the moving average, is expected to maintain weak operation in the short term. In the evening, it was announced that the Markit manufacturing PMI, in the United States in February was concerned about the trend in the dollar, and copper could move in the direction of $6850.
Today, the main 1805 contract for Shanghai copper opened at 52410 yuan / tonne. after the opening of the market, copper prices fell slightly to 52300 yuan / tonne. subsequently, bulls increased their positions at a low level, driving copper prices all the way up to a narrow range near the daily average of 52560 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, copper prices broke through the daily average resistance and touched as high as 52710 yuan / tonne. the high level attracted short intervention, and copper prices then fluctuated and falled. at the end of the day, copper prices stabilized at around 52490 yuan / ton, closing at 52470 yuan / ton, down 470 yuan / ton, and their positions increased by 10062 hands to 245000 hands. Volume decreased by 20868 hands to 119000 hands. Positions in the Shanghai copper index rose 8348 to 856000. At present, Shanghai copper has been running below the average of all roads, paying attention to the trend of the US dollar in the short term. if the US dollar continues to rise, copper prices are expected to still have room to fall, and 52000 yuan will not be guaranteed in the evening.
Today Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the month contract reported water 210 yuan / ton-water 130 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 51920 yuan / ton-51980 yuan / ton, rising water copper transaction price 51940 yuan / ton-52040 yuan / ton. Copper in Shanghai has been blocked three times in a row, falling below all averages. today's 10-day average under pressure, today's Shanghai-London ratio rose, import losses narrowed sharply to less than 100 yuan, foreign trade US dollar copper has recently been active, and imports of copper in the spot market for domestic trade have increased. The willingness to exchange cash is urgent. the early market quotation is lower than yesterday's directly. good copper did not show any improvement until the discount was 140 or 130 yuan per tonne, and Pingshui copper expanded all the way down to about 200 yuan / tonne, and the transaction became more active. although the market today has an active inquiry, the sale of goods is still concentrated. It can be heard everywhere that there is a lot of underpricing to pick up the goods. Futures copper disk low pressure, market activity is mostly trade speculators. According to SMM research, the downstream start order rate improved in March, downstream replenishment can still be expected, only wait for the disk to stabilize. In the afternoon, the market selling boom gradually receded, low-priced goods have been difficult to find, coupled with disk price volatility fell, the discount narrowed slightly, the transaction activity was flat with the morning, flat water copper newspaper discount 200 yuan / ton, good copper newspaper discount 160 yuan / ton, The transaction price is 51880 ≤ 52060 yuan / ton.
Aluminum: in the early years, Lun Al opened at US $2131 / ton. in Asian trading, Lun Al performed better, and its center of gravity steadily moved up and touched 2153 US dollars / tonne. at the end of the Asian session, the metal showed signs of weakening and the base metal fell generally during the trading period in Europe. Lun Aluminum continued to dip after throwing up its gains, hitting a low of US $2126.5 per tonne, and as of 16:27 it was at US $2128 / ton. at night, it followed Putin and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. at present, the five-day line shows strong resistance. In the past three months, the output of aluminum in China has been relatively large, but Lun Al is still in the concussion range of the box in the early stage and has not yet broken its position. after the US Department of Commerce initially cut down the "double reverse" of China's ordinary alloy plate in April, it inhibited domestic exports to a certain extent. In the medium term, Lun Al still has the ability to move.
The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14340 yuan / ton in the morning, hit 14300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the session, and then aluminum prices fluctuated around the daily average line under the long and short game. the center of gravity moved up slightly, and Shanghai Aluminum closed slightly higher at 14390 yuan / ton in the afternoon dominated by the closing of short positions. Positions in the Shanghai Aluminum Index fell 1234 to 793618, 11802 in 1804 contracts and 12916 in 1805 contracts. At present, on the one hand, there is a peak season to remove inventory expectations, on the other hand, electrolytic aluminum inventory exceeds 2 million and March costs have room to move down. therefore, both long and short periods are cautiously hesitant, but in the short term, the market is more optimistic about the expected performance of inventory removal in the peak season. As a result, short-term aluminum prices still have a small amount of action.
On the spot side, the transaction concentration was 14130 million yuan / ton in Shanghai, 130 yuan / ton in that month, 14130 yuan / ton in Wuxi and 14140 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. The willingness of large households to ship goods is not active, and the spot discount has narrowed to 130 or 120 yuan per tonne, which has attracted active shipments by small and medium-sized traders, an increase in the supply of goods in circulation in the market, a change in the point of view of traders in the buying and selling market, and a shift in the market from a buying atmosphere to a selling atmosphere. The consumption activity of downstream enterprises gradually warmed up, and the overall transaction fell compared with yesterday. Afternoon aluminum center of gravity slightly upward, East China market quotation 14150 ≤ 14160 yuan / ton, the holder price, but it is difficult to see a deal.
Lead: within the day, Lun Pb opened 2504.50 US dollars per tonne, and short positions were concentrated at the beginning of the session. Lun Pb once dipped to US $2495 per tonne, and then short positions were reduced and bulls entered the market, and Lun Pb rebounded slightly to US $2502 per ton. The lead Asian period mostly revolves around the daily moving average narrow range shock, the range does not exceed 10 US dollars / ton. Affected by the continued weakening of lead in Shanghai and the strengthening of the US dollar, short positions began to concentrate in the European period, and Lun Pb fell to $2463.50 a tonne in a row. As of 17: 30, Lun lead was down $42, or 1.64 per cent, at $2460 a tonne. After breaking down yesterday, Lun lead continued its downward trend today. within two days, the cumulative decline of Lun lead has been close to 4.5%, and after breaking the position, it has been far away from all averages, and the weak effect has appeared in advance. The dollar continued to strengthen, with upfront platform support and weekly support pointing to $2425, with lead expected to test $2450 in the evening.
Within the day, the Shanghai lead main 1804 contract opened 19175 yuan / ton, and at the beginning of the session, the Shanghai lead opened short, Shanghai lead down to 19050 yuan / ton, the million nine levels showed support, short profits reduced positions, short-term long into the market, Shanghai lead rebounded slightly, around 19055 ≤ 19,125 yuan / ton range shock. At midday close, boosted by China's Caixin manufacturing index data, good for non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead concussion rose back to 19104 yuan / ton, and then many short positions alternately entered the market, but the short side had a strong short selling force, and Shanghai lead continued to fluctuate downward. Affected by the bottom 19000 yuan integer support, Shanghai lead at the bottom to 19035 yuan / ton, until the closing short profit reduction, long into the market, Shanghai lead has rebounded. It ended up at 19080 yuan per ton. Volume decreased by 6234 hands to 40934 hands and position by 1148 hands to 40584 hands. Shanghai lead daily line on the continuous break, night or test below the 19000 yuan integer support, it is expected that the evening Shanghai lead or continue to weaken.
Shanghai market quoted 19105 yuan / ton lead, 50 yuan / ton for 1804 contract, 19085 yuan / ton for Shuangyan, 60 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 19095 yuan / ton for copper crown in Wuxi market, 70 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 70 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 60 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 70 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 60 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 70 yuan / ton for 1803 contract. Jingui 19075 yuan / ton, for 1803 contract water 50 yuan / ton. Futures market volatility consolidation, the mood of the holder to support the price slightly lower, to maintain the accompanying quotation, and downstream storage enterprises only on demand to meet a small amount of replenishment, bulk market transactions are still light.
Guangdong market stores 19130 yuan / ton of lead in the south, 80 yuan / ton for 1805 contract, 19250 yuan / ton for Yunnan lead, 18965 yuan / ton for YT and Jingui lead, 60 yuan / ton for 1803 contract, 19250 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead, 60 yuan / ton for Jingui lead and 60 yuan / ton for Jingui lead. Shuikoushan 18945 yuan / ton, 1803 contract discount 80 yuan / ton quotation. The quotation of the cargo holder goes with the market, the enthusiasm for shipment is OK, but the downstream receiving of goods is limited, and the transaction in the bulk single market is not good. Henan area Yuguang, Jinli lead bulk single 19125 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 25 yuan / ton quotation factory, northern Henan lead 19150 yuan / ton, SMM1# lead average price flat water quotation. Refinery inventory has been rising, price sentiment has fallen slightly, while downstream large storage enterprises procurement is still dominated by long single, limited transactions in the bulk market. Anhui copper crown lead 19200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan / ton; Jiangxi Jinde maintain long single shipment, bulk single temporarily do not quote; Hunan Shuikoushan bulk single 19150 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead flat water quotation. Refinery supply tends to be abundant, low price pity selling mood is relatively relaxed, and downstream battery market demand is limited, storage enterprises generally maintain on-demand caution, the overall market transactions are general.
Zinc: within the day, Lun Zn opened at US $3448.5 / ton. at the beginning of the session, it rose along the daily average. to measure the weakness of the 5-day line, the center of gravity gradually moved down after touching an intraday high of US $3472. With US $3465 per ton as the axis and US $10 per ton as the amplitude, it runs above the daily average. near the European trading session, the US dollar again rallied above 90.70. the metal fell, and the zinc dived below the 40-day line support, falling all the way down. The decline was further widened to $3372 a tonne, or $72 per tonne, or 1.94 per cent, as of 17: 30 per cent. The performance of Lunzinya City is flat, and the European period is diving sharply, which constitutes a three-day negative situation. Lunzin has completely fallen below the 40-day moving average, straight down to the 60-day moving average, and may test the support of the 60-day moving average at night.
Within the day, the main 1804 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 26285 yuan / tonne, and the low short side's profit-taking mood warmed up, pushing zinc prices up to the top of the daily average. after consolidation and accumulation, they turned red and recovered all their losses in the night market, and Shanghai Zinc's high position gained momentum through a small correction. Once again rose to 26480 yuan / ton, hitting a new high in the day. in the afternoon, zinc prices were affected by the expansion of the decline in lead in Shanghai, concussion gave up some of the gains, concussion near the opening price, near the close of a small rise in red. It closed at 26430 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan, or 0.11 per cent. Within the day, Shanghai zinc performance is strong, in the 40-day line closed Xiaoyang line, but the European session of the outer disk broken, is expected to be followed by a short-term evening fall in the outer market, break down, evening attention to the support of the 26000 yuan mark.
Shanghai 0 # zinc mainstream transaction in 26220 ≤ 26320 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 1804 contract discount 150-120 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, 0 # Shuangyan to April discount 120-90 yuan / ton, 0 # common brand to Shanghai zinc 120 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 120 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 120 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand to Shanghai zinc 120 yuan / ton 1 # mainstream traded at 26180 & 26250 Shanghai zinc main 1804 contract intraday concussion upward, the end of the disk up, early closing at 26475 yuan / ton. Zinc prices are high, smelters are actively shipping to reduce inventory, traders are mainly shipping, market quotations continue to go down, and some downstream inquiry purchases have been made one after another. however, tight funds limit the intensity of procurement, and it is more common to make more and less market transactions. The overall volume of transactions increased slightly from yesterday.
Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream transactions in 26220 ≤ 26280 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui near, Shanghai zinc 1804 contract discount 180 ≤ 160 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's expansion. Shanghai zinc 1804 contract opened strong pull up, recover the night market decline, close to midday rise again, today refinery shipments normal, traders fully reworked, the market transaction mildly expanded; However, a large number of downstream enterprises have not yet returned to production, the actual consumption of the market is still weak, and the overall transaction is higher than yesterday. 0# Kirin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Danxia mainstream transactions in 26220 ≤ 26280 yuan / ton.
Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction in 26380 ≤ 26620 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction in 26380 ≤ 26420 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1804 contract discount 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui, basically flat compared with yesterday. Within the day, the main Shanghai zinc 1804 contract opened around 26380 yuan / ton around the center of gravity slowly rose. Today, refinery shipments are normal, traders are mainly shipping, Tianjin issued weather pollution warning, but the impact is limited, downstream inquiry, the volume is still less, the overall transaction of the market is basically the same as yesterday. 0 # Zijin, Bailing, Qin Zinc, Chihong and so on traded in 26380 ≤ 26420 yuan / ton, 1 # Zijin, Chihong, Hongye, etc., sold 26330 ≤ 26380 yuan / ton.
Tin: today Lunxi opened at $21555 a tonne, rising slightly in the Asian session, with the upper bearing pressure near the 5-day moving average of $21600 / tonne. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell's debut in the House of Representatives on Tuesday sparked sharp market volatility, and today he also spoke about his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee. Lunxi shock rose to give the basic metal pressure, Lun tin material to maintain the concussion pattern.
Last night Shanghai tin 1805 contract mainly in the vicinity of 148200 yuan / ton concussion, today opened 147930 yuan / ton, intraday trend volatility fell, mainly due to long continued to reduce positions; In addition, there were signs of short market entry in the afternoon, the trend continued to be depressed, hitting a minimum of 147200 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 147330 yuan / ton, down 850yuan / ton from the previous day's settlement price, down 0.57 per cent. The transaction increased by 48 hands in 12466 hands and decreased by 306 hands in 22170 hands. Today, most of the domestic commodities rose, but the weakness of non-ferrous metals is difficult to change, Shanghai tin concussion downward, below the test 40-day moving average support strength, short-term trend is expected to bear pressure.
Shanghai tin market, today Shanghai tin market mainstream transaction 145,500 ≤ 147,000 yuan / ton, some small cards as low as 145,000 ≤ 145,300 yuan / ton transaction, trading atmosphere is light. Yunxi 147000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word 146000 ≤ 146,500 yuan / ton, small card 145000 ≤ 145500 yuan / ton. Market low-cost goods are still more, coupled with Shanghai tin disk trend is weak, suppress the overall price trend and market sentiment.
Nickel: today, Lunni opened at US $13725 / tonne, opening down US $13595 / tonne, the low was supported by the 20th line, rising through the daily average. towards midday, Lenni quickly rose as high as US $13830 / tonne, followed by horizontal trading. In the afternoon, Lun Ni concussion fell back, giving up morning gains, by 1700, Lun Ni reported at $13695 / ton. Daily technical index KDJ opening downward, MACD green column expansion, night or seek support. Evening focus on January personal consumption spending (PCE) month-on-month in the United States and the ISM manufacturing index in the United States in February.
Today, Shanghai Nickel 1805 opened at 104400 yuan / ton, first suppressed and then raised. Open long to reduce the position of Shanghai nickel straight down 103490 yuan / ton, back to step on the 20 antenna after a stable rise, the center of gravity gradually close to the daily average. Towards midday closing, long positions into the market, Shanghai nickel quickly pulled up 105320 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel in short positions under pressure fell, the center of gravity fell to 104830 yuan / ton, closing at 104780 yuan / ton. All day, Shanghai nickel main contract 1805 closed in the next shadow longer Xiao Yin Xing, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 190 yuan / ton, down 0.18%. Trading volume increased by 7494 hands to 519000 hands, while position volume decreased by 4888 hands to 491000 hands. Daily line technical index KDJ opening down close, MACD red column narrow, night or continuous correction, pay attention to the support of the 20-day line below.