Shanghai-bonded copper stocks gain 17,800 mt on week

Codelco reported own copper production of 564,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 11% year on year. Including attributable production from its stakes in El Abra, Anglo American Sur and Quebrada Blanca, total attributable output reached 619,000 tonnes, down 10%. Based on the company’s first-quarter and first-half figures, Codelco’s own copper production in Q2 is estimated at approximately 292,000 tonnes, 13.6% lower than the 338,000 tonnes recorded a year earlier. The decline was mainly driven by operating constraints at El Teniente, major maintenance at Chuquicamata during April and May, and lower ore grades at Ministro Hales. Output from the three divisions fell by 27%, 22% and 21%, respectively. Despite lower production and higher costs, stronger copper prices supported financial performance. Codelco’s first-half EBITDA increased 68% year on year to $4.648 billion, while C1 cash costs rose 6.7% to 231.6 cents/lb. Production recovery at El Teniente, operational improvements at Chuquicamata and ore-grade movements at Ministro Hales will remain key factors for the company’s second-half output.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper absolute prices are expected to stay high during the day. The backwardation spread between contract months has narrowed notably from the previous period, weakening the basis for suppliers to hold prices firm. Some suppliers have proactively lowered their quotes to facilitate transactions, driving spot premiums down rapidly. Meanwhile, some imported cargoes have been arriving at ports recently, increasing the availability of spot copper in the Shanghai market and marginally easing the previously tight supply situation. On the demand side, persistently high copper prices continue to suppress downstream purchase willingness. Buying sentiment pulled back notably during the day, with downstream users still purchasing mainly on a need-to basis and showing limited acceptance of high-premium cargoes. Overall, with the narrowing backwardation spread, increased arrivals of imported copper, and stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, though the overall center may continue to edge lower.