Decline in aluminium futures erodes deters offloading in east China

The EU Council gave final approval on September 24 to temporary trade measures expected to make about 80% of Armenian exports to the bloc duty-free. The annex covers CN 7202 ferro-alloys and CN 2825 other metal oxides, bringing qualifying Armenian ferromolybdenum and molybdenum oxide within scope. SMM learned that European inquiries and procurement demand for Armenian ferromolybdenum increased today as the market priced in the expected tariff relief, potentially improving the material’s competitiveness. As of September 30, the regulation was still awaiting signature and publication in the EU Official Journal. It will enter into force the following day and apply for two years, meaning the current demand pickup mainly reflects advance positioning ahead of implementation.

Taking into account overseas demand and the market environment, the current export order sentiment in the industry is relatively high, and the resonance of overseas aluminum capacity expansion and production resumptions continues to drive the recovery of aluminum fluoride demand.

SMM expects that entering Q4, China's prebaked anode exports are likely to maintain mild growth, boosted by new capacity in Indonesia and Southeast Asia and continued momentum in emerging markets. Enterprises are advised to keep monitoring the commissioning pace of overseas aluminum capacity, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and trade policy changes, and to flexibly adjust their export structure and inventory strategies.