SMM, September 29:
According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in August 2026 totaled 238,200 mt, up 14.23% YoY and up 12.52% MoM. In terms of pricing, the average export price of prebaked anode in August was approximately $942.72/mt, up 23.09% YoY but down 8.63% MoM. In January-August 2026, China's cumulative prebaked anode exports reached 1.7565 million mt, up 22.13% YoY, extending the export expansion trend.
1. Domestic export regional distribution
From the perspective of domestic export regions, industrial clustering effects are significant, with Shandong still holding a dominant position. In January-August 2026, Shandong's exports totaled approximately 1.1656 million mt, accounting for 66.4% of the total, up 6.06% YoY, serving as the cornerstone of national exports. Hunan and Jiangsu remained firmly in the top three. Hunan's exports reached 171,300 mt, up 53.35% YoY, with its market share rising to 9.8%; Jiangsu exported 130,900 mt, up 9.51% YoY. The two provinces together contributed approximately 17.3% of total exports.
2. Export destination structure
From the perspective of destination countries, on a cumulative basis, the January-August export landscape showed clear regional divergence: Indonesia continued to lead. Exports to Indonesia in January-August reached 319,400 mt, up 87.14% YoY, accounting for 18.18% of market share. Indonesia's local aluminum capacity continues to expand, making it the largest contributor to China's prebaked anode export growth.
Divergence in the Middle East market intensified. Exports to the UAE in January-August totaled 153,000 mt, basically flat YoY (-1.96%), but August alone surged 253.70% YoY and grew 59.19% MoM, indicating a significant pickup in August purchases; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia (15,200 mt, -55.66%) and Bahrain (27,600 mt, -38.80%) continued to contract.
European demand remained resilient. Iceland (93,900 mt, +38.81%) and Spain (80,100 mt, +66.91%) posted impressive growth; Belgium's YoY growth reached 188.52%, and Sweden became a newly developed European market. Traditional markets such as Germany and the UK declined by 21.60% and 70.01%, respectively. Emerging markets posted notable growth. Markets with zero exports or a very low base in the same period of 2025, including Angola (48,100 mt), Vietnam (16,200 mt), the US (13,000 mt), Australia (11,900 mt), South Africa (9,400 mt), Sweden (9,700 mt), and Ghana (5,100 mt), achieved export volume breakthroughs in January-August 2026. Exports to Qatar, South Korea, Iran, and Thailand fell to zero. Africa and Southeast Asia became key destinations for export diversification.
The Russian market remained under pressure. Exports to the Russian Federation in January-August totaled only 39,200 mt, plunging 67.56% YoY. In August alone, exports were less than 1 kt, down 95% YoY, as geopolitical and trade constraints continued to weigh.
Other countries showed mixed performance. Malaysia, Norway, and Canada maintained relatively high export volumes and sustained growth. France, Azerbaijan, and Cameroon recorded impressive export growth. Exports to India, Brazil, and Greece declined YoY. Oman remained broadly stable.
III. H2 Outlook
China's prebaked anode exports remained resilient in the first eight months of 2026, with cumulative growth of 22.13% YoY, while regional and country-level divergence widened further. Supporting factors: Indonesia's new aluminum capacity continued to be released, remaining the most important growth market for China's anode exports. Demand in Iceland, Spain, and Belgium in Europe stayed steady. Emerging markets such as Angola in Africa and Vietnam in Southeast Asia opened up new opportunities, enhancing the diversification of export destinations. Constraining factors: the Russian market is unlikely to recover in the short term under geopolitical influence. Demand in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and other Middle Eastern countries stayed weak. Some traditional European markets (the UK and Germany), as well as India and Brazil, saw declines to varying degrees. Meanwhile, exports to Qatar, South Korea, Iran, and Thailand fell to zero entirely, reflecting the complex landscape of overseas aluminum capacity adjustments and local supply competition. SMM expects that entering Q4, China's prebaked anode exports are likely to maintain mild growth, boosted by new capacity in Indonesia and Southeast Asia and continued momentum in emerging markets. Enterprises are advised to keep monitoring the commissioning pace of overseas aluminum capacity, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and trade policy changes, and to flexibly adjust their export structure and inventory strategies.
