Macro Roundup (Jul 4)

SHANGHAI, Jul 4 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar inched down to close at 94.58 on a stronger euro before the US Independence Day holiday. 

Base metals mostly went down, however, due to worries over global trade conflicts and weak Chinese manufacturing data released earlier this week. LME zinc led the losses and closed nearly 1.7% lower, nickel fell over 1.5%, aluminium dipped over 1%, and copper dropped nearly 1%, touching the lowest in nine months last night. Tin and lead edged down. All SHFE base metals fell, except for aluminium. 

Eurozone retail sales in May went flat from April, compared with the expected 0.1% gain, and the previous month’s 0.1% loss. The figure rose 1.4% from last year, lower than expected and the previous 1.6%. 

US factory orders exceeded expectations to rise 0.4% month on month in May, up from April’s -0.4%, which marked a record low in nearly six years. 

Its durable goods orders in May dipped 0.4% on the month, slower than the expected -0.5% and the preliminary figure of -0.6%. 

However, business spending on equipment appeared to slow further in the second quarter, and growing labour shortages as well as import tariffs started to weigh on the supply chain.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories during the week ended June 29 declined by 4.5 million barrels. This followeda sharp drop of 9.23 million barrels last week, the largest weekly decline since September 2016. 

Day ahead

China's Caixin services purchasing managers' index (PMI) is the key factor to watch today.