Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (June 18, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price review]

Silver prices stabilized and rebounded this week (6.15-6.18) after a continuous early decline. Easing US-Iran tensions saw both domestic and overseas futures hold up well, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. Market attention was focused on the Fed’s FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the fourth straight hold, but the latest dot plot showed a generally more hawkish shift among officials—the majority expected no rate cuts this year, and nearly half saw further rate hikes as possible. The statement noted inflation remains above target, and rising energy costs and geopolitical risks add to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term goal and will not pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting, silver dipped briefly but then recovered on technical buying as expectations of further rate hikes did not materially increase. On the geopolitical front, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. In industrial demand, premiums for mainstream quotations of national standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW; mainstream quotations stayed at parity to slight premiums, with most trades concluded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Downstream consumption turned sluggish as silver prices rebounded slightly. On the inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their stock, while the willingness to sell was weak given locked long-term contracts and reserved export quotas. Additionally, some upstream smelters started routine maintenance. Social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw overall destocking. As for the gold/silver ratio, the LBMA gold/silver ratio was around 67 as of June 17.

[Key data]

Bearish:

The June FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50-3.75% unchanged, but the dot plot showed the majority of members expected no rate cuts this year and some supported further hikes, indicating an overall hawkish Fed stance.

Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation remains clearly above the 2% target, monetary policy will stay restrictive, and clear rate-cut signals are unlikely in the near term.

The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with unemployment around 4.3%, dampening market expectations for rapid easing.

Bullish:

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, initiating a 60-day negotiation period.

Peru's energy crisis persists, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Already 12 large mines have adopted staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline 5-8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, offering some floor support to silver prices.

[Near-term Focus]

June 20: US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary;

June 26: US Q1 GDP final;

June 27: US May core PCE price index;

Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the progress of strait reopening.

[Price Forecast]

Silver is expected to hold up well next week. Ongoing attention is needed on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with further strikes if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement. After the Fed’s June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path temporarily subsided. Although the Fed’s overall tone remains hawkish, expectations for additional rate hikes have not increased. Silver’s previous bearish factors have been largely released. However, US Treasury yields will continue to exert some pressure on silver, and prices may move sideways. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand-based purchases while pushing for lower prices. Selling pressure on low-priced spot cargo has eased, and social inventory of spot silver ingots has been destocking overall. Yet sentiment has not fully recovered. Mainstream spot transaction discounts/premiums are expected to remain within the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract. A shift toward higher premiums in the short term appears unlikely.