SMM Evening Comments (May 30)

SHANGHAI, May 30 (SMM) – Most nonferrous metals futures dipped except for SHFE tin and nickel. Copper led losses to close 1.47% lower, lead fell 0.65%, and aluminium and zinc inched down.

The ferrous complex, except for coking coal and iron ore, rose across the board. Hot-rolled coil and coke gained over 1%, and rebar went up nearly 1%.

Copper: US-Sino trade tension weighed on the market's risk appetite. Shorts entered while the SHFE 1807 contract tumbled during the day. Technically, the contract now struggles among several moving averages with the KDJ expanding downwards. We expect it to trade rangebound tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract initially hit a high of 14,780 yuan/mt as shorts closed out their positions. The contract then fell as the nonferrous complex weakened and touched a low of 14,650 yuan/mt. Some longs entered the market at lows, before closure. We expect SHFE aluminium to continue its rangebound pattern in the short term with a lack of developments for direction.

Zinc: The SHFE 1807 contract rebounded to a high of 24,020 yuan/mt from a low of 23,885 yuan/mt during the day. Investors became keen to close out their positions and to watch and wait, after the contract broke resistance at the 24,000 yuan/mt level. We expect the contract to consolidate between the 40- and 60-day moving averages tonight.

Nickel: As longs took profits and left, the SHFE 1807 contract came off from a high of 112,400 yuan/mt in the morning. The contract rebounded above the daily moving average in the afternoon as longs added their positions and as shorts cut their positions. The contract fell to a low of 111,430 yuan/mt before closure as longs took profits and left again. We expect it to trade weakly rangebound tonight.

Lead: The SHFE 1807 contract lost 0.65% on May 30 but remained at high levels for four consecutive days. It was dragged down to close 130 yuan/mt lower at 19,835 yuan/mt as most base metals weakened on market concerns of macroeconomic developments tonight. We continue to see upward room for the contract tonight, but investors remain wary of long-term bearish sentiment. 

Tin: After a slight gain initially, the SHFE 1809 contract fell during the day. It fell to a low of 153,000 yuan/mt before closure and we expect it to remain rangebound in the short term.

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