SMM Morning Comments (May 17)

Published: May 17, 2018 09:46

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SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, May 17 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper stood around the 40-day moving average overnight with strong upward momentum. Overnight, the SHFE 1807 contract touched the five-day moving average above, with resistance. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,830-6,880/mt and the SHFE 1807 contract at 50,900-51,400 yuan/mt during the day. As prices of futures rose, spot discounts are likely to stand between 130-80 yuan/mt, with active transactions for high-quality copper.

Aluminium: LME aluminium dipped to a low of $2,302/mt during the European trading session last night, but closed slightly higher at $2,311.5/mt. It is likely to trade rangebound at $2,280-2,320/mt today. The SHFE 1807 contract also inched up overnight with support from longs. Investors will take cues from the US-Sino trade conflict and transactions in the zinc spot market in the short term. The contract is expected to trade at 14,750-14,950 yuan/mt today with spot discounts at 100-60 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc traded robustly overnight with guidance from its SHFE counterpart. It opened above the five-day moving average with pressure above at $3,100/mt. We see it trading at $3,060-3,110/mt today. The SHFE 1807 contract strengthened last night as overall positions fell. It is likely to trade at 23,500-24,000 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel consolidated around the daily moving average overnight. The SHFE 1807 contract fell and traded around the daily moving average after hitting a high of 108,130 yuan/mt overnight. We expect LME nickel to trade weakly rangebound today and the SHFE 1807 contract to trade at 106,900-108,900 yuan/mt with spot prices at 106,400-108,400 yuan/mt.

Tin: LME tin traded under pressure overnight with slightly lower trading levels. The SHFE 1809 contract opened lower and traded rangebound overnight. Its trading level edged down towards the 145,000 yuan/mt level at one point. We expect the contract to remain rangebound under pressure and test support at the 145,000 yuan/mt level today.

Lead: LME lead edged down overnight due to a stronger US dollar and an increase of 600 mt in LME lead inventory. It is expected to hover around the five-day moving average in the short term. The SHFE 1806 contract tested highs but stopped climbing at 19,635 yuan/mt. We see it trading rangebound today with much pressure above. The dominant contract is expected to move to 1807 in the near term.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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