Bulgarian Copper Ore Reserves Increase, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Slightly Decline Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,089/mt overnight. At the beginning of the session, the price center shifted downward, probing to $13,060/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of $13,160/mt, followed by wide swings before finally closing at $13,100/mt, a drop of 0.64%. Trading volume reached 12,200 lots, and open interest stood at 325,000 lots, a decrease of 1,683 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 101,660 yuan/mt overnight. It fluctuated upward initially, touching a high of 102,100 yuan/mt, then experienced wide swings, probing down to 101,510 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price center shifted somewhat upward, finally closing at 101,730 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.13%. Trading volume reached 34,800 lots, and open interest was 158,000 lots, down 1,466 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating long position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) According to foreign media reports, DPM Metals' Chelopech polymetallic mine in Bulgaria saw an increase in resources, extending the mine life to 2036, with annual production reaching 160,000 gold equivalent. Currently, the project's reserves increased by 42% to 23.2 million mt, with grades of gold at 2.18 g/mt, silver at 8.35 g/mt, and copper at 0.6%. In terms of metal content, this equates to 1.6 million ounces of gold, 308,400 mt of copper, and 6.2 million ounces of silver. Additionally, resources also increased to 15.3 million mt, with grades of gold at 1.96 g/mt and copper at 0.57%.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 10, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise, opening at 101,840 yuan/mt. After opening, the price dropped slightly, then fluctuated between 101,460 yuan/mt and 101,650 yuan/mt, followed by an increase, twice touching a high of 101,850 yuan/mt, before pulling back to close at 101,210 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 450 yuan/mt to 350 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged from a loss of 900 yuan/mt to 760 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot premiums/discounts are expected to move down under pressure. During the day, suppliers showed willingness to sell off goods, while downstream consumption weakened as some enterprises entered the holiday period and stockpiling was largely completed, leading to a slight drop in spot premiums/discounts. Supply side, previously locked-in imported cargoes arrived at ports successively, gradually increasing market circulation. However, it is noteworthy that to capture the spread profit, holders of most delivery brands chose to hold back goods awaiting delivery, leading to a tightening of deliverable spot supply in the market. Meanwhile, purchase willingness from buyers was weak, resulting in a stagnant supply-demand stalemate, which is expected to suppress spot trade activity and the performance of premiums/discounts.
(2) Guangdong: On February 10, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average discount at 105 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 260 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 240 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, up 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
(3) Imported copper: Warrant prices were $30-46/mt on February 10, QP February, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $14-26/mt, QP March, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: The futures closing price was 101,460 yuan/mt at 11:30 on February 10, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 5 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM today. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,500-89,700 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,753 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,460 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, most secondary copper rod enterprises have entered the Chinese New Year break mode, with the majority of factories completing all shipments today. The number of quotations from secondary copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, and market transactions are expected to be minimal in the coming trading days.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump called on the US Fed to cut interest rates, while officials stated that inflation remains relatively high and there is no urgent need for rate cuts. US December retail sales data fell short of expectations. Fundamentals showed a weak supply-demand pattern: on the supply side, some imported copper arrived, making market supply more relaxed; on the demand side, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream users was largely completed, with weak purchasing sentiment. Copper prices were under pressure due to weak demand. Overall, copper prices fluctuated within a limited range last night and are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]