SMM Evening Comments (May 9)

Published: May 9, 2018 18:40

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, May 9 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures dipped for the most part on Wednesday May 9 as SHFE copper led declines with a drop of over 1%. Nickel, tin, and aluminium fell nearly 1%, and zinc inched down. Lead closed slightly higher.

The ferrous complex fell across the board on Wednesday. Rebar and coke dipped over 2%, hot-rolled coil and coking coal lost nearly 2%, and iron ore lost over 0.6%.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract was dragged down by its weakened LME counterpart after the contract rose to a high of 51,120 yuan/mt in the morning. It stood below all moving averages and touched the middle Bollinger Bands above. We see it consolidating at current levels tonight as both the US dollar and prices of crude oil strengthened. Investors will take guidance from LME copper tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract met pressure from the 20-day moving average today and slumped to close lower at 14,630 yuan/mt. It is expected to continue to trade rangebound at the current level in the short term.

Nickel: As the US dollar gained, the SHFE nickel 1807 contract lacked upward momentum and fell across several moving averages to a low of 103,800 yuan/mt. During the day, the KDJ indicator expanded downwards, with a capital outflow of 159 million yuan. The contract is likely to trade rangebound tonight. Investors will also take more cues from the US producer price index (PPI) in April and the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) data on crude oil inventories over the week ended May 4.

Zinc: With pressure from shorts, the SHFE 1807 contract slumped to a low of 23,650 yuan/mt and mostly hovered above the daily moving average after. The plunge followed after the contract rose to a high of 23,865 yuan/mt with support from longs in the morning. Technically, it faced significant pressure above with support at 23,000 yuan/mt. We expect it to trade rangebound tonight.

Lead: After it rose to a high of 18,990 yuan/mt in the morning, the SHFE 1806 contract met pressure at 19,000 yuan/mt. It showed upward momentum in the afternoon and closed higher from Tuesday at 18,950 yuan/mt. We see it hovering at highs in the short term.

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract dipped further with support at 145,000 yuan/mt as most base metals fell during the day. It is likely to test support at 144,000 yuan/mt tonight.

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copper aluminium nickel zinc lead tin

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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