SMM Evening Comments (May 4)

SHANGHAI, May 4 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures saw mixed trading on Friday May 4 with SHFE zinc leading the loss with a dip of nearly 2%. Nickel fell almost 1%, while copper, aluminium, lead, and tin inched up.

The ferrous complex saw iron ore dropping over 1%. Rebar lost nearly 1%, and hot-rolled coil slid almost 0.7%. Coke and coking coal went up slightly.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract climbed up during the day and recovered the losses overnight. It technically stuck between moving averages and stood above the 40-day moving average. It is expected to rise further tonight. Investors would look for guidance from LME copper prices tonight.

Aluminium: A lack of fundamental support saw the rise of SHFE 1807 aluminium prices unsustainable this morning. We expect the contract to trade at 14,450-14,800 yuan/mt next week, as the market continues to look out for further development of the US sanctions on Rusal, the results of US-China trade talks and China’s destocking speed.

Zinc: The SHFE 1807 contract dipped to a low of 23,130 yuan/mt with pressure from shorts. A plunging LME zinc in the afternoon added to the pressure. We see the contract testing support at 23,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Nickel: The SHFE 1807 nickel contract traded rangebound below the daily moving average and fell to a low of 103,680 yuan/mt as investors took a cautious stance waiting for the result of China-US trade talk. It is likely to stay rangebound tonight, when the US nonfarm payroll for April and its unemployment rate data will give more cues.

Tin: Pressure from several moving averages remained for the SHFE 1809 contract, which closed 630 yuan/mt higher from the previous day. It is seen trading rangebound in the short term with resistance at 148,500 yuan/mt and support at 146,800 yuan/mt.

Lead: The SHFE lead contract was dragged down by weaker SHFE zinc today, trading around the day moving average. We see the support level at 18,500 yuan/mt being tested tonight.

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