SMM Evening Comments (Apr 2)

SHANGHAI, Apr 2 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures rose across the board though China's Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) failed to meet expectations. SHFE tin jumped over 2% and aluminium rebounded close to 2%. Nickel gained 1.6%, lead rose close to 1% while zinc inched up.

The ferrous complex remained strong with coke up more than 3%. Rebar gained over 2%, iron ore jumped close to 2%. Coking coal gained 1.9% while hot-rolled coil rose over 1%.

Copper: The SHFE 1805 contract traded rangebound around moving averages and stood above the 10-day moving average during the day. We expect SHFE copper to stand above the 50,000 yuan/mt level and test the 50,300 yuan/mt level tonight. Trade tension may affect copper prices.

Aluminium: SHFE aluminium regained lost ground and inched up to a high of 13,995 yuan/mt today as investors covered their shorts. Prices are likely to rise further in the short term, supported by a shrinking inventory and potential rising costs. We see SHFE aluminium trading rangebound at the 20-day moving average and 14,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Zinc: SHFE zinc struggled at the 25,000 yuan/mt level during the day. However, in anticipation of a rebound in consumption, we expect it to rise above the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages and test upward momentum tonight.

Nickel: As investors cut their long positions, the SHFE 1807 contract dipped twice and inched up to a high of 100,930 yuan/mt today. We see it testing resistance at the 20-day moving average tonight. Investors should take cues from the US Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI for March.

Tin: SHFE tin led the gains in base metals today and surged to a high of 146,260 yuan/mt near closing. Due to concerns of a short supply of tin ore, prices are likely to remain in an upward track with resistance at 146,500 yuan/mt in the short term.

Lead: SHFE lead saw a long upper shadow with pressure at the 19,000 yuan/mt level. We expect it to trade rangebound tonight. Investors should monitor if longs cash in their positions at highs.

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