Chinese NPI output in December down 1.8% on the month

"Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries**

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

As of last Friday, the average price of 8-12% high-grade NPI was 954.8 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, including tax), down 3.2 yuan/mtu WoW. Supply side, even though the approved nickel ore quota is increasing, it still takes time for the nickel ore to move from the mine to the smelter. As a result, the current operating rate of NPI producers remains low. Stainless steel and stainless steel scrap prices kept dropping. High-grade NPI is still more cost efficient than stainless steel scrap. The terminal need for stainless steel stayed low, failing to boost the high-grade NPI prices. As a result, it causes a build-up in inventory and is expected to keep NPI prices low.

The Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group (INSG) released data on Monday March 21, showing that in January 2022, the global nickel market was oversupplied by 6,000 mt, while there was a supply shortage of 5,300 mt in the same period last year.

China's refined zinc output stood at 458,400 mt in February, down 59,200 mt or 11.43% MoM and 2.72% YoY.

China produced 2.95 million mt of aluminium in February (28 days), down 2.35% on the year. The daily output averaged 105,000 mt, up 1,900 mt/day on the month.

Domestic copper cathode output in February stood at 835,700 mt, up 2.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 1.7% year-on-year (YoY).

China’s output of praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide in February 2022 stood at 6,094 mt, down 2.5% from a year earlier with ion-absorbed iron separation companies in Sichuang, Jiangus, Guangdong and Guangxi contributing most of the increment, while those in Jiangxi saw output cuts.

According to sources, Indonesian President Jokowi admitted that the ban on raw ore export had not been without challenges, as the European Union (EU) has filed a lawsuit against Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused many worries in the financial market. With the further aggravation of the situation, both domestic and foreign nickel prices have risen sharply, among which SHFE nickel prices have once again been set a record high.