LME Base Metals Cash to 3-Month Backwardation/Contango (2017-9-25)

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash Update】The pullback in copper prices boosted copper cathode rod enterprises' willingness to restock, with enterprises stockpiling as needed, while continued cargo pick-up from downstream drove a rapid drawdown in finished product inventories. Enterprises are expected to maintain high operating rates next week to ensure deliveries, while remaining cautious about picking up goods for high-priced orders and strictly controlling order intake to avoid risks.

Yesterday’s night session, copper prices opened lower with a gap, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday procurement demand increased somewhat, but given the concentrated replenishment on the previous day, actual incremental buying was limited. From the market structure perspective, the import arbitrage window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China increased, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[Latest Data From the General Administration of Customs] In January 2026, China imported 232,300 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, down 2.78% MoM and up 22.82% YoY. Imports in February were 167,900 mt in physical content, down 27.72% MoM and down 13.14% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 reached 400,300 mt in physical content, up 4.64% YoY cumulatively. (HS code: 74040000)