US industrial supercycle expectations heat up, copper prices consolidate and rebound [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,015/mt, drifted higher to touch $14,128/mt after the open, then pulled back to a low of $13,926/mt, before rallying again in late trading to close at $14,114.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, down 6,845 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2610 contract opened at 107,430 yuan/mt, touched a high of 107,630 yuan/mt during the session, then declined to a low of 106,890 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 107,200 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume reached 27,000 lots, and open interest stood at 175,000 lots, down 4,878 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) According to Miningnews.net, Alkane Resources has updated the mineral resources of its mine assets. The company's mine assets include the Boda-Kaiser, Tomingley, and Costerfield projects in eastern Australia, as well as the Bjorkdal gold mine in Sweden. Currently, the company's total ore resources stand at 579 million mt, with a gold grade of 0.46 g/mt, copper 0.19%, and antimony 2.1%, equating to gold resources of 8.62 million oz, copper of 1.01 million mt, and antimony of 42,000 mt. Ore reserves total 25 million mt, with a gold grade of 1.7 g/mt and antimony 1.6%, equating to gold reserves of 1.37 million oz and antimony of 15,000 mt, distributed across the Bjorkdal, Tomingley, and Costerfield deposits. Reserves at Tomingley and Bjorkdal grew 3-4%, while gold resources at the Costerfield project increased 13% and antimony increased 40%.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 250 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 75 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract mostly traded between 107,390 yuan/mt and 107,770 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2610 contract mostly traded between 106,670 yuan/mt and 107,320 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the two contracts narrowed from a high of 910 yuan/mt to around 420 yuan/mt. Import profit margins for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month ranged from a profit of 970 yuan/mt to 1,370 yuan/mt. During the day, selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.75, down 0.86 MoM, while buying sentiment was 2.48, down 0.09 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, as some imported cargoes gradually arrive at ports, available supply in the Shanghai market has been replenished compared with earlier periods, exerting some pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, although SHFE copper prices pulled back in last night's session, SMM understands that actual end-use procurement volumes remain limited, with downstream players maintaining a strong wait-and-see sentiment and purchasing mainly on a need-to basis, showing low acceptance of current high-premium cargoes. Meanwhile, as market pricing gradually shifts to the 2610 contract, spot premiums against the October contract remain at a relatively high level. Some suppliers are willing to lower their quotes, but their willingness to sell at low prices is also limited. Overall, with the combined impact of increased imported arrivals and weak end-use demand, the center of SHFE spot copper quotes against the 2610 contract is expected to edge lower today. However, given that available cargoes have not yet become notably ample and suppliers still intend to hold prices firm, spot premiums are expected to remain at a relatively high level.
(2) Guangdong: On September 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 160 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,445 yuan/mt, down 1,465 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,335 yuan/mt, down 1,430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.43, down 0.14 from the previous trading day, and the willingness to sell stood at 2.70, down 0.12 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, the price spread between futures contracts was large on the delivery day, spot trades were sluggish, and conditions are expected to improve tomorrow.
(3) Imported copper: On September 15, the average warrant price rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $110/mt (price range $105-115/mt); the average B/L price rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $110/mt (price range $110-120/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $65/mt (price range $60-70/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from September to early October.
(4) Secondary copper: On September 15 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,320 yuan/mt, down 920 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 75 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices fell 600 yuan/mt MoM. The sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials fell to 2.66, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 1.85. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,125 yuan/mt, down 356 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 300 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after copper prices opened lower with a gap, they consolidated. Secondary copper rod enterprises made just-in-time procurement to restock, but holders of secondary copper raw materials showed weak willingness to sell. Purchases were mainly used for earlier deliveries, and market transactions were mediocre.
Prices: On the macro front, ahead of the US Fed meeting, Bessent downplayed interest rate risks and said the US is entering a new round of "industrial supercycle." On the geopolitical front, US-Israeli and Gulf state military leaders held high-level meetings in Germany to coordinate responses to the Iran situation, with geopolitical uncertainty persisting. On the fundamentals front, domestic copper and imported cargoes edged up, and spot supply improved somewhat but remained tight overall. Demand side, downstream users continued to make just-in-time procurement. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]