[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes] New Energy Industry Chain Demand Differentiation, Market Awaits Gradual Recovery in Peak Season
This week, the industry chain exhibited a diverging pattern, with upstream raw material and cobalt salt prices weakening while midstream and downstream material prices remained relatively stable. Trading in refined cobalt, intermediate products, cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, Co3O4, and cobalt powder was generally sluggish. Downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement, as off-season demand was insufficient, and inventory pressure along with low-priced supply continued to weigh on market prices. Although some miners and smelters, supported by high-cost inventory, still intended to hold prices firm, traders and recycling companies became more active in selling, and the decline in the cost of refined cobalt reverse dissolution further strengthened market expectations of pushing for lower prices. In the short term, related product prices still face downward pressure.
Ternary cathode precursor, ternary cathode material, and LCO prices remained stable overall. Leading ternary cathode precursor companies performed well in export orders, and domestic production schedules recovered somewhat, but small and medium-sized enterprises were still affected by the off-season. Demand for ternary cathode materials from the EV sector stayed at a high level; some battery cell enterprises stockpiled in advance, and August orders are expected to be stable with slight growth. Consumer-side demand remained mediocre. Affected by sluggish end-use demand and substitution by ternary cathode materials, LCO production and sales remained low, further narrowing enterprises' profit margins. Subsequent market recovery will still depend on the restocking pace in mid-to-late August and the release of demand during the September-October peak season.