Refined cobalt:
At the beginning of this week, the refined cobalt market continued to drift lower. After the sustained decline in refined cobalt futures prices, traders raised their spot-futures price spread quotes. Currently, almost no enterprise is quoting on par with futures, with the minimum spread at 1,000-2,000 yuan. Mainstream smelters have not yet adjusted prices, but if market prices remain at current lows, the likelihood of downward price revisions remains high. Downstream demand remains sluggish, with enterprises still making just-in-time procurement to restock and showing no intention of pre-holiday stockpiling. Overall, refined cobalt prices do not yet have the conditions to break out of low-level consolidation until various cobalt products stop falling and downstream users begin sustained restocking.
Intermediate products:
At the beginning of this week, the cobalt intermediate product market remained sluggish, showing a "three-zero state" of no quotes, no inquiries, and no transactions. Current holders' asking price intentions remain above $17/lb; however, affected by the continuous downward adjustments in prices of various related cobalt products, downstream smelters have low willingness to inquire and purchase, with overall strong wait-and-see sentiment. A small number of enterprises indicated they could only accept prices below $13/lb. The price divergence between buyers and sellers continues to widen, making transactions difficult. However, as time passes, sales pressure on miners is gradually accumulating, and the sustainability of their firm pricing stance faces a certain test. Against the backdrop of continued weakness across the cobalt market, the price center of intermediate products may slowly shift downward along with the market.
Cobalt sulphate:
At the beginning of this week, cobalt sulphate prices continued to grind lower. Although mainstream enterprises maintained cobalt sulphate quotes near 60,000 yuan/mt this week, actual transactions were very difficult. Some low-quality cobalt sulphate quotes were lowered to around 52,000 yuan/mt to achieve deals. However, downstream buyers still showed no purchase intention. Some downstream players believe cobalt sulphate prices will fall below 50,000 yuan/mt in the future. Under the influence of bearish sentiment, only a few enterprises made just-in-time procurement. MHP cobalt payables were concluded at 57.5%, with spot production costs for cobalt sulphate at approximately 52,000 yuan/mt. On the recycling side, LCO battery black mass payables fell to 66-69%, corresponding to spot costs of just over 50,000 yuan/mt for cobalt sulphate. Cost support continued to weaken, opening new room for smelters to cut prices and sell. Before substantive improvement appears on the demand side, the cycle of "price cuts—losses—raw material price suppression—cost declines—further price cuts" is expected to continue dominating the direction of the cobalt sulphate market.
Cobalt chloride:
This week, cobalt chloride prices continued to decline, with market transactions remaining sluggish. Although a few spot orders were concluded this week, volumes were extremely limited. The market mostly remained at the inquiry and quotation stage, and some enterprises showed noticeably weaker willingness to quote amid absent demand. On the supply side, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, a considerable number of producers have already entered the pre-holiday wrap-up stage, planning to resume normal operations after the National Day holiday. Pre-holiday shipments and production pace slowed simultaneously. The demand side remained the main drag. Downstream Co3O4 producers continued to expand production halts, with purchasing capacity shrinking sharply. Even when cobalt chloride producers had material available, buyers were hard to find, further solidifying the pattern of prices without transactions. Overall, cobalt chloride prices are expected to maintain a narrow downward trend in the short term.
Cobalt salts (Co3O4):
This week, Co3O4 prices pulled back slightly. In terms of transactions, spot orders were extremely scarce. Existing shipments were mostly long-term contracts signed earlier, while other producers focused mainly on processing business. On the supply side, the scope of production halts and cuts across the industry continued to expand. On the demand side, LCO enterprises still hold raw material inventory. September demand remained weak, with no purchase willingness for now, and most enterprises have begun preparing for the holiday. From the production pace perspective, the first week of October will see production halts due to the National Day holiday, followed by approximately two weeks of equipment commissioning after production resumptions. Monthly production is expected to drop sharply. Overall, Co3O4 prices are expected to maintain a narrow decline in the short term.
Cobalt powder and others:
At the beginning of this week, cobalt powder market transactions remained sluggish. Top-tier smelters lowered quotes to around 380,000 yuan/mt, while some small and medium-sized enterprises further reduced quotes to 350,000-360,000 yuan/mt to achieve deals. Downstream buyers still have not resumed purchasing before this round of dual holidays. The crux lies in earlier stockpiling behavior: during the previous period of sustained cobalt and tungsten price increases, many cemented carbide enterprises purchased large quantities of raw materials. As both raw material and finished product prices pulled back, high-cost inventory pushed these enterprises into severe losses, forcing production pace to slow. The consumption cycle of existing inventory was further extended, and new purchases were repeatedly postponed. For the cobalt powder market, the timing of demand recovery depends not only on the recovery of end-use orders but also on the pace of destocking of high-cost downstream inventory. Before that, the sluggish transaction environment will be difficult to fundamentally change.
Ternary cathode precursor:
At the beginning of the week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. Today, cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate prices declined, while manganese sulphate prices remained stable.
Regarding discounts, for October and Q4 orders, some producers still intend to hold prices firm due to the higher cost of sulphate raw materials in the earlier period. For long-term contracts, some producers had already agreed on terms at the beginning of the year, and most producers have not yet raised payables. Downstream buyers also showed weak acceptance of payables increases for quarterly orders. Except for some top-tier producers with certain bargaining power, most producers are expected to keep overall terms on par with Q3. For spot orders, given the relatively weak performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices recently, coupled with weak downstream demand for some producers, October order payables are expected to decline.
In terms of production, top-tier producers continued to see good export orders this month, with production schedules at relatively high levels. However, some domestic top-tier producers saw lower willingness to stockpile and declining operating rates due to end-use demand falling short of expectations and tightness in key raw materials. Overall, this month's production schedule showed a downward trend.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have not yet shown a clear rebound. Future new order prices will need to focus on actual downstream demand in Q4.
Ternary cathode material:
At the beginning of this week, ternary cathode material prices fell sharply across the board. From the raw material side, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate maintained a grinding trend, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices dropped significantly, jointly driving ternary cathode material prices rapidly lower. In terms of transactions, although prices have fallen to staged lows, the large decline combined with the approaching National Day holiday meant most producers had already completed stockpiling and had no urgent need for large-scale restocking. Overall sentiment was dominated by a wait-and-see approach, with cautious trading sentiment this week. On the demand side, September EV market demand remained weak. Cathode plants focused on consuming inventory, with weak enthusiasm for production and raw material purchases. October is expected to see a modest staged recovery in the EV market after the National Day holiday, but for Q4 overall, ternary market demand will be difficult to see a clear recovery, still lagging behind the peak levels of Q2 and Q3. In the consumer market, some new projects for ultra-high-nickel 9-series materials performed relatively well in recent months, but traditional 568-series material projects remained relatively mediocre overall.
LCO:
This week, China's LCO market prices pulled back and weakened overall. The industry's traditional "September peak season" boost failed to materialize, and overall fundamentals remained under pressure. The cost side was the core drag. Upstream Co3O4 prices declined, directly compressing cost support for LCO and driving product prices lower. On the supply side, domestic cathode enterprises maintained a cautious strategy of producing based on sales. Overall industry output fluctuated little, with relatively stable market supply and no obvious supply pressure from supply-demand mismatch. The demand side showed clear weakness. The peak season boost fell far short of market expectations. Downstream end-use market stockpiling willingness was low, with purchases maintained solely on a just-in-time basis throughout. End-use demand lacked effective upward driving force. The current pace of inventory digestion across the industry chain remained relatively slow, with the supply-demand pattern staying weak without substantive improvement. Although downstream buyers have not actively pushed for lower prices, this cannot offset the dual bearish impact of falling costs and weak demand. Overall, the weak tone for the short-term LCO market has been set, with a clear downward consolidation trend in prices. If end-use demand remains weak and peak season conditions continue to be absent, LCO market prices still face the risk of further weakening.
News:
[Gotion High-tech: Subsidiary signs EUR 1.094 billion engineering contracting agreement] Gotion High-tech announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Gotion Spain plans to sign the "Phase I Drying Room General Contracting Agreement" and "Phase II Engineering General Contracting Agreement" for the "annual 29.1 GWh lithium battery project" with PowerCo Spain under Volkswagen Group, with a total contract value of EUR 1.094 billion. This transaction constitutes a related-party transaction and still requires shareholder meeting approval. (Jin10 Data)
[15th Five-Year Plan for new-type battery industry development: Develop high-safety consumer electronics lithium batteries and improve NEV power battery safety] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for New-type Battery Industry Development." The plan proposes improving energy density, power density, and cycle life through process optimization, material upgrades, and structural innovation. It calls for developing high-safety consumer electronics lithium batteries, improving the safety, fast charging performance, low-temperature adaptability, lightweight design, and energy density of NEV and electric vessel power batteries, and developing high-safety, large-capacity, grid-forming, ultra-long cycle life ESS batteries.
[Cui Dongshu: Auto industry profit margin 3.6%, revenue up 2.9%, costs up 4%, profit down 16% in January-August 2026] Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that in January-August 2026, the electronics industry, driven by artificial intelligence, saw profits grow 1.1 times, while upstream raw material industries posted high profit growth, greatly contributing to overall industry profit improvement. The auto industry faced dual pressures of rising costs and weak demand, with relatively poor profitability. In August 2026, auto production reached 2.7 million units, sales revenue reached 928.1 billion yuan, up 4.2%, costs reached 831.3 billion yuan, up 5.3%, profit reached 37.1 billion yuan, up 24%, and the sales profit margin was 4%. In January-August 2026, auto production reached 20.31 million units, down 3% YoY, revenue reached 7,006.2 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY, costs reached 6,237 billion yuan, up 4% YoY, profit reached 253.4 billion yuan, down 16% YoY, and the sales profit margin was 3.6%. In 2026, various regions vigorously promoted the implementation of the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, gradually and effectively releasing domestic demand vitality. However, the improvement in auto industry profitability clearly lagged behind other consumer goods. As national anti-involution efforts continue to advance, the auto industry faces severe upstream squeezing, serious price issues, surging oil prices, and soaring profits in nonferrous metals and semiconductors. End-user car purchase sentiment is heavily dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, and automakers face continuously increasing operating pressure, with high-quality development severely impacted by upstream forces. (Cui Dongshu)
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