SMM Releases Copper PMI in August and September Forecast

On August 26, COMEX copper futures for September delivery once rose 1.8% to $6.7270/lb (about $14,830/mt), surpassing the previous record of $6.7140/lb set on August 12 and hitting a new all-time high. LME three-month copper futures rose to $14,437/mt, approaching the historical highest price of $14,527.5/mt set in January, with the COMEX-LME price spread at about $500/mt. Market expectations that the US may impose a 15% tariff on copper cathode from January 2027 (rising to 30% from 2028) have been disrupting global copper trade flows. Data showed that the US imported 889,800 mt of copper cathode in H1 2026, up 2.1% YoY, while 2025 was the year with the highest imports on record at 1.6544 million mt for the full year. As of August 24, COMEX copper inventories had reached a record 676,104 mt. If US imports maintain their current growth rate, copper markets outside the US will actually face a supply deficit.

According to Russian Government Decree No. 1059 dated August 21, 2026, amending Government Decree No. 785 dated June 25, 2026 (on the introduction of a temporary ban on the export of certain types of sulphur from the Russian Federation), the key provisions are as follows: New Exemption: The temporary ban does not apply to low-grade technical sulphur (grade 7000), classified under EAEU HS codes 2503 00 100 0 and 2503 00 900 0. Export Quota: Exports of the above category shall not exceed 300,000 tonnes. Licensing Requirement: Exports are permitted only on the basis of a permit issued by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. Enforcement Basis: For the purpose of applying the temporary ban, the EAEU HS code shall be the sole criterion; the product name is provided for reference only. Effective Date: This decree enters into force on the date of its official publication. Beyond this newly added exemption, the temporary ban on sulphur exports from Russia remains in full effect.