Jinchuan Group Reduces Nickel Price by 1,100 yuan on Sept. 6

[9.23 Morning Meeting Minutes] President Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to the US from September 23 to 25, marking the first state visit to the US in 11 years and the second exchange of visits between the Chinese and US heads of state within half a year. Earlier, He Lifeng completed economic and trade consultations with Bessent and Greer in New York, with officials describing the talks as "candid, in-depth, and constructive," and a dialogue on AI issues was also held. The central parity rate of the yuan rose for the ninth consecutive day, with the onshore yuan closing at 6.6955, the highest since July 2022. The outcome of the meeting has become the biggest variable for global markets this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) drifted higher in early trading, closing the morning session at 124,400 yuan/mt, up 0.70%. On the macro front, falling oil prices eased pressure from rate-hike trades, but US Fed officials continued to strike a hawkish tone, and expectations for an October rate hike remained. On the fundamental side, water resource disruptions in Indonesia continued to affect supply expectations, but nickel's own high inventory and weak demand pattern remained unchanged. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to consolidate, with a projected range of 123,000-126,000 yuan/mt.

Indonesian nickel ore delivered to main Indonesian ports: 1.2% Ni: $26.5/wmt, down $0.5/wmt from the previous assessment. 1.4% Ni: $51.8/wmt, unchanged. 1.5% Ni: $58.5/wmt, unchanged. 1.6% Ni: $63.4/wmt, unchanged. Market update: Indonesia's nickel ore market remains focused on the gradual release of additional 2026 RKAB approvals. Some supplementary quotas have started entering the market, but the government has not announced a final national additional quota. Meanwhile, the revised HPM formula effective September 15 has lowered the benchmark for low-grade limonite, with 1.2% Ni HPM at $24.89/wmt, below current market prices.

According to SMM market research, RKEF Nickel Pig Iron smelters at Indonesia’s IMIP industrial park started reducing production today, with some production lines operating rates were reduced by around 30%-40% from previous levels. Market sources said El Niño-related dry conditions have reduced rainfall and tightened water availability for equipment cooling and protection. If the current operating rate persists for half a month, Nickel Pig Iron output could be reduced by around 50,000-70,000 mt on a physical tonnage basis. Actual operating rates will continue to depend on weather and water supply conditions, and SMM will continue to monitor further developments.