Potential Surplus from Aluminum Capacity Cuts to Weigh on Alumina Prices, SMM Warns 

The EU-imposed definitive anti-dumping and countervailing duties ranging from 15.4 per cent to 28.5 per cent on products under CN code ex 7607 11 19 are expected to run until December 9, 2026. The EU duties on Chinese aluminium converter foil came into effect in December 2021, as an effort to address the unfair trade practices found through the investigation in October 2020. The investigation then led to a provisional duty in June 2021, before the final tariffs became effective, with the combined duty range between 16.1 per cent and 46.7 per cent.

On March 27, Dongxing Aluminum achieved its production targets for key products such as electrolytic aluminum, aluminum coils, and aluminum rods in the first quarter. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 425,800 tons, aluminum coils were 160,100 tons, and aluminum rods were 30,200 tons. The electrolytic cell operation rate reached a maximum of 99.9%, and the on-site conversion rate of molten aluminum reached 95.7%.

Tianshan Aluminum (002532) released its performance forecast on March 29, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.2 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 107.92%. The main reasons for the company's performance growth are: the partial commissioning of capacity from the 1.4 million-ton electrolytic aluminum green and low-carbon energy efficiency improvement project, resulting in a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% in electrolytic aluminum production and sales; simultaneously, the sales price of electrolytic aluminum products increased by approximately 17% year-on-year, while production costs were effectively controlled and decreased year-on-year, resulting in a synergistic effect of increased volume and price.