Citibank’s Bold Copper Price Forecast for 2017-2020

On March 23, the 150,000-ton annual electrolytic copper project undertaken by the Second Company of China No.15 Metallurgical Construction Group Co., Ltd. for Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. successfully produced a cumulative total of 1,300 tons of high-purity cathode copper, with product purity reaching 99.997%, exceeding the design value of 99.9935%.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a stalemate. Supply side, according to SMM, large volumes of non-registered copper are set for concentrated arrivals next week, while actual arrivals still need to be observed further, and near-term supply pressure remains in place. Against the current backdrop of high inventory, circulating spot cargo is relatively ample, and most suppliers have strong willingness to sell, leaving spot discounts continuously under pressure. However, some suppliers have begun to show an inclination to hold prices firm. If discounts widen further, suppliers may choose to ship to delivery warehouses rather than continue selling at deeper discounts, providing some support to the lower end of discounts. Demand side, some downstream enterprises have seen an increase in order intake and shipments for this month, resulting in rigid demand for spot cargoes with invoices dated this month, but such cargo is relatively hard to find in the market. In addition, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper remains narrow, indicating that actual consumption demand has become the dominant market driver. Overall, room for spot discounts to fall further is limited, but any upside is also constrained by high inventory and expectations for imported arrivals. Shanghai spot copper against the 2604 contract is expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.