China NPI Production to Grow in July, SMM Reports

A leading Indian stainless steel producer raised domestic HR and CR coil prices effective August 14, its second revision in August. Increases by grade: 304 HR increases INR 1,000/t, 316L HR/CR increases INR 3,000/t, 200-series CR increases INR 1,000/t, and all HR grades in 1,301–1,500mm width increases INR 2,000/t. The hike was driven by persistently higher ferro molybdenum costs and volatile nickel prices amid ongoing uncertainty over Indonesia's revised RKAB mining quotas. India's domestic market remained firm with improving downstream demand, while subdued imports due to higher freight rates and geopolitical tensions reinforced buyers' reliance on domestic material. In China, weak futures sentiment weighed on spot prices, with RKAB uncertainty, hawkish Fed signals, and US-Iran tensions keeping sentiment bearish, though stable inventories and firm NPI costs provided a price floor, pointing to a weak-to-stable consolidation phase near term.

Chinese Taiwan's Customs Administration under the Ministry of Finance has formally launched an anti-dumping investigation into certain cold-rolled flat-rolled stainless steel products imported from Vietnam, following a petition filed by Yusco and Tang Eng Iron Works. The investigative period covers July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026. The Ministry of Economic Affairs will assess potential industrial damage within 40 days of receiving the notification, while the Ministry of Finance reviews dumping margins. Products under investigation are cold-rolled stainless steel flat products in coils or sheets with thickness of 0.05–6.10mm, nickel content of 5–20%, chromium content of 15–25%, manganese content up to 3%, and aluminum content up to 0.5%, excluding coated or plated products. Officials noted that surging import volumes priced below domestic production costs have caused severe market share losses and financial strain for local producers.

[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.