As the domestic secondary lead smelters cannot purchase raw materials smoothly in the early stage of the implementation of the new value-added tax (VAT) policy on lead-acid battery scrap, the domestic lead prices are expected to move upward supported by the higher costs and expectations for tighter supply. However, the lead consumption market is approaching the traditional off season, the lead ingot inventory increases, and the spot discounts expand.

Data released by LME shows that the lead inventory across LME-listed warehouses have been falling from the high level of 58,175 mt since November 16, 2021.

The Federal Reserve announced to accelerate the tapering of bond purchases at its interest rate meeting last week.

The moves of SHFE and LME have been heading toward different directions recently. As of December 8, LME lead has been falling for five consecutive sessions. SHFE lead, on the other hand, rallied strongly after falling for two days in a row, and rose 1.88% to 15,175 yuan/mt to close the day.

Market focus this week includes the readings of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone in November and the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in November; the one-year loan market interest rate as of November 22 in China. On the events front, the Federal Reserve FOMC will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting this Thursday; Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech this Friday.

The October CPI in the US due last week increased by 6.2% year-on-year, the biggest increase in 31 years, and up 0.9% month-on-month, the largest gain in four months.

Since the beginning of this year, the copper prices have continued to rise, reaching the highest level since May 2006 in May. The high copper prices have made relevant companies profitable.

Stainless steel futures entered sharp correction.  The most-traded SHFE contract fell sharply after hitting highs on September 23, and closed at 19,690 yuan/mt today. The decline reached 12.2% for four trading days.

The contango of LME cash to the three-month contract maintained at $10/mt. LME zinc prices are expected to stand at $2,960-3,030/mt this week. The most-traded SHFE contracts are expected to stand at 22,000-22,600 yuan/mt this week, spot premiums of Shanghai zinc stood at 180-200 yuan/mt over the October contract.

Nickel stocks across LME-approved warehouses gained 2,874 mt on Monday to 69,180 mt