Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-4)

US Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that if signs of weakness emerged in the labor market, he would again support an interest rate cut later this year, while remaining alert to the inflationary pressures that the current geopolitical situation may bring.Waller noted that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz signaled greater inflationary pressure, and that higher oil prices could ultimately affect core inflation. He stressed that the current cautious stance did not mean there would be no action for the rest of the year.His remarks sent an important signal to the market—that the window for an interest rate cut had not closed, provided that employment data showed clear weakening.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on the 20th that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that, despite extensive attention from Western media, the US Navy aircraft carrier Ford was deployed to the West Asia region but failed to provide support for US forces there and instead withdrew from the battlefield, reflecting the “desperate and humiliating” reality facing the US and Israel.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be tapped again to suppress oil prices, but the reality was far more complex than this statement suggested—the reserve level was already close to the statutory minimum, and physical safety constraints left extremely limited room for any further release.Last week, Bessent said that the US had participated in the largest internationally coordinated SPR release operation to date, totaling 400 million barrels, and warned that, if necessary, the US could once again unilaterally release reserves to stabilize oil prices.