Update of Antam Nickel Ore Export Quotas

[9.7 Morning Meeting Minutes] US Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, and expectations for a September rate hike cooled significantly. Waller said recent data finally showed signs of slowing inflation, and if data over the next two weeks continue this trend, he would lean toward supporting keeping rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range; but he also warned that if inflation data come in hot, a September hike remains possible. Overnight, US stocks rose for a second straight day, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest one-month gain (+1.06%) and the Dow up 1.18%, while the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.766%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2610) consolidated lower in early trading and closed the morning session at 127,940 yuan/mt, down 0.60%. Waller's dovish remarks cooled expectations for a September hike, and the US dollar and Treasury yields pulled back, marginally easing macro pressure. However, overnight LME nickel edged lower against the trend and clearly underperformed copper and other base metals, while high inventory and weak demand remained unchanged, leaving nickel prices with insufficient rebound momentum. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 127,000-131,000 yuan/mt.

According to Eurostat data, EU imports of stainless steel flat products, long products, and tubes totalled 645,500 tonnes in H1 2026, down 21% YoY, with flat products posting a sharper 35% decline. Analysts note the significant contraction reflects broad market caution ahead of the EU's new steel safeguard measures, 50% out-of-quota duties, and melt-and-pour rules. Outokumpu CFO Marc Simon Schaar acknowledged that EU trade measures are supporting demand, but noted that weak end demand has reduced scrap generation, keeping scrap costs elevated; the company expects Q3 sales volumes to decline by up to 10% QoQ. Critics argue the subdued buying appetite is partly self-inflicted, a direct consequence of the market uncertainty created by domestic producers' persistent calls for trade protection.