China Refined Nickel Output Falls in May MoM, SMM Reports

Nickel Industries reported a 4% year-on-year increase in nickel ore production to 4.13 million wmt during the quarter despite an eight-day mining suspension in April. Ore sales declined 5% to 2.88 million wmt, while the average realised selling price rose 50% to US$37.8/wmt following Indonesia's revised nickel ore HPM pricing mechanism. Higher realised prices lifted adjusted EBITDA by 58% to a record US$45.7 million despite increased royalty payments and operating costs. Following the quarter, the company submitted an application to increase its 2026 RKAB sales quota to 19 million wmt, which is currently awaiting approval from the Indonesian government.

Chinese Taiwan’s imports of 300-series stainless steel hot-rolled products rebounded to around 54,400 mt in June, up 46.4% month on month, ending two consecutive months of decline and reaching the second-highest level this year. Import prices rose for a fifth straight month to a two-year-and-eight-month high. Market participants attributed the increase to Indonesia’s nickel production restrictions, which lifted raw material costs and prompted Tsingshan to raise export offers. First-half imports reached approximately 284,400 mt, up 3.7% year on year, adding to cost pressure on local mills.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On July 29, fixed-price actual orders for high-grade NPI remain scarce, with market transactions generally based on a premium/discount negotiation model. Premiums for mainstream supply have edged down from earlier levels, but upstream and downstream price levels remain difficult to match. Bearish sentiment persists on the demand side, and the market remains cautious about the outlook for August.