Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-4-11)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 11 (SMM) – ZEW’s April Economic Climate Index for Germany and Europe, NFIB’s March CCI at small enterprises in the US, US February JOLTs, seasonally adjusted industrial output in eurozone in February and March CPI for UK will be released today. Base metals weakened overnight and diverged. The market will eye on whether lead and zinc will find support and whether aluminum and tin will continue falling today.

Eurozone economic indicators were mostly upbeat from last year. Eurozone data are expected to improve, but will unlikely allow the European Central Bank (ECB)to tighten its monetary policy.

Global inflation is on the rise. So UK’s March CPI will remain strong. But this does not mean a possible interest rate hike soon by the ECB, despite strong retail sales expected.

US non-farm employment and LMCI were both sluggish in March, but did not weigh down the US dollar significantly. This means the market is still confident about US job market. If February JOLTs increase, the US dollar index will receive a boost. Even if the data turn out to decrease, any weigh on the US dollar will be limited.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke this morning, saying US economy is very healthy, and the property market is healthier than ever. She expects US economy to grow mildly further. Global economy will be more active. The Fed is getting close to its target. US job market is in normal condition. Janet Yellen expects growth in production rates to pick up and a gradual rate hike will be appropriate.

EIA’s monthly outlook report will be also a focus of markets. Oil prices continued rising, helped by geopolitical crisis and output cut in Libya. But the market is still worried about potential pressure on oil prices from growing oil output in the US.