SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Mar. 27, 2017)

Zambia’s sulphuric acid shortage is becoming a growing constraint on copper production and refining. Jubilee Metals reported acid costs rising by more than 200% in Q4 FY2026, while Sable cathode output fell to 250 t from 361 t in Q3. Government data also showed small-scale copper production down 35.2% YoY in H1 2026, highlighting the sector’s exposure to tight acid availability and higher processing costs.

Selkirk Copper Mines has outlined a potential restart of the past-producing Minto copper-gold-silver mine in Yukon, Canada, following the completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) that supports first concentrate production in the second half of 2028.​ The PEA outlines a 13-year mine life based on combined open-pit and underground mining, with operations designed around an average mining and milling rate of 4,100 mt/day. At peak production, the project is expected to produce approximately 27,200 mt/year of copper-equivalent contained in concentrate, equivalent to around 48,700 mt/year of high-grade copper-gold-silver concentrate.​ Initial capital required to re-establish production is estimated at C$186 million. Using the study's planning prices of US$5.00/lb copper, US$3,600/oz gold and US$50/oz silver, the PEA estimates an after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of C$494 million, an after-tax IRR of 47.8% and a payback period of approximately 1.9 years from first production.​ Minto benefits from substantial existing infrastructure from its previous operations, including a 4,100 mt/day processing plant as well as existing open-pit and underground infrastructure. Selkirk Copper said assessments of the site's existing infrastructure and equipment found that the majority remains in good working order and requires only minor attention and refurbishment.​ The company is targeting first concentrate production in H2 2028, followed by full ramp-up of mining, milling and concentrate production by H1 2029. A feasibility study is scheduled to begin in Q4 2026, while amended permit applications are also expected to be submitted during the fourth quarter. Selkirk Copper said a restart decision is targeted following completion of the feasibility study and receipt of permit amendments in H2 2027.​ The Minto PEA outlines a potential pathway for a previously producing copper operation to return to the market by 2028, supported by existing processing and mining infrastructure that could reduce the capital and construction requirements compared with a greenfield project. However, the 27,200 mt/year peak production figure represents copper-equivalent contained in concentrate rather than contained copper alone. The restart also remains subject to further feasibility work, permitting and project execution, making progress toward a restart decision in H2 2027 an important milestone to watch.

Consolidated Copper Corp (CCC) is targeting an early-2027 restart of open-pit mining at the Tschudi copper mine in northern Namibia, with an estimated US$30–40 million of development capital required to bring mining operations back online.​ Under the planned heap-leach restart, Tschudi is expected to reach run-rate copper cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year over an initial 10-year mine life. CCC expects to complete a definitive feasibility study for the heap-leach mining restart in September 2026, with open-pit mining targeted to recommence in early 2027.​ The planned restart relates specifically to open-pit mining at Tschudi. Copper processing operations were restarted in 2024 using existing stockpiles, with CCC reporting production of more than 7,600 mt of copper cathode conforming to LME Grade A specifications as of June 2026. Tschudi previously produced approximately 75,000 mt of copper cathode between 2015 and 2020 before being placed on care and maintenance.​ The operation already has significant processing infrastructure in place, including a 2.88 million mt/year SX/EW plant. According to CCC, the US$30–40 million restart capital would primarily cover dewatering, mining mobilisation and demobilisation, a mobile crushing plant and development of a leach pad.​ CCC is also studying a larger expansion targeting Tschudi's sulphide resources. The concept includes construction of a 3 million mt/year flotation plant alongside the existing SX/EW operation, potentially increasing average annual production to approximately 30,000 mt of copper-equivalent over more than 10 years. The expansion remains under study and is separate from the planned heap-leach mining restart.​ The planned restart of open-pit mining at Tschudi could strengthen Namibia's copper supply by supporting run-rate cathode production of more than 14,000 mt/year if the project proceeds according to schedule. Existing SX/EW infrastructure and the relatively modest US$30–40 million restart capital requirement could support a faster return to mining compared with a greenfield development. However, the early-2027 restart remains a company target, with completion of the definitive feasibility study and subsequent mine mobilisation among the key milestones to watch.