SHANGHAI, Aug. 23 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About 40% of them expect mainstream traded prices for spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize between RMB 123,000-124,500/mt. While checks by central environmental protection inspection team are over, tin smelters in Yunnan have yet to resume production. Even if some smelters resume production this week, supply will not recover immediately, which will offer support to tin prices. On the other hand, nearing G20 Summit will hurt downstream demand in Hangzhou and surrounding regions. The US dollar index rebounded as remarks by US Fed officials reignited expectations for US rate hike, which will send LME tin down to USD 18,300-18,550/mt. Investors will cut bets on SHFE 1609 tin before its nearing delivery date. SHFE 1609 tin will find support from tight supply in domestic market, but will also face resistance, with prices expected between RMB 122,500-124,000/mt.
Another 35% expect spot tin in Shanghai to rise to RMB 124,000-125,500/mt, citing tight supply. The KDJ indicator suggests that SHFE 1609 tin will see a rebound, with prices expected to rise to RMB 124,000-125,000/mt. LME tin will advance to USD 18,400-18,650/mt.
The rest 25% are bearish that spot tin in Shanghai will fall to RMB 121,000-123,000/mt. Tin smelters will begin resuming production and sell stocks on hand now that environmental protection inspections are over. The nearing G20 Summit will hurt tin downstream demand. A stronger US dollar will send LME tin down. LME tin will test support at the 20-day moving average if it loses support at USD 18,300/mt. SHFE 1609 tin will head down toward RMB 120,000/mt.
