SHANGHAI, Aug. 15 (SMM) – SMM’s survey of major Chinese tin smelters over their opinions on this week’s price outlook shows the following results.
About 35% of them expect spot tin in Shanghai to fall to RMB 120,000-122,000/mt. SHFE 1609 tin fell back after hitting previous highs and will face pressure from longs, who might take profit at highs, with prices expected between RMB 118,000-121,000/mt. Poor Chinese economic data triggered worries over demand in China. LME tin will drop to USD 17,700-18,000/mt if it loses support at USD 18,000/mt.
Another 50% expect spot tin in Shanghai to stabilize at RMB 122,500-124,500/mt citing tight supply. The negative impact on domestic tin production from environmental issue will not fade for now. Even if smelters resume production this week, it will take time for supply to recover. Supply will remain tight in the short term. SHFE 1609 tin will face corrections after big gains, but tight domestic supply will limit its downside room, with prices expected at RMB 121,500-123,500/mt. LME tin will fluctuate between USD 18,000-18,300/mt.
The rest 15% are bullish that spot tin in Shanghai will rise to RMB 124,000-126,000/mt. Capital inflows will push SHFE 1609 tin up to RMB 123,500-126,000/mt. Poor US economic data have cooled expectations for US rate hike. A weaker US dollar will push LME tin up to around USD 18,650/mt.
