SHANGHAI, Apr. 6 (SMM) – About 30% of Chinese tin smelters surveyed by SMM expect tin prices to rise this week.
Those optimists see SHFE 1605 tin rising above RMB 106,000/mt and spot tin in Shanghai rising to RMB 107,000-109,000/mt. The spread between spot tin prices and SHFE tin has created room for arbitrage, which will attract buying on the SHFE. Rising SHFE tin will boost sentiment in spot market. Chinese tin smelters have reported raw material shortage recently. Tax policy in Myanmar and upcoming rainy season will tighten tin ore supply in China. Chinese tin smelters will thus hold offers firm.
Another 25% see spot tin prices in Shanghai fall to RMB 105,500-107,500/mt and SHFE 1605 tin fall below the 60-day moving average to RMB 102,000/mt. Poor downstream demand will not support tin price rise. LME tin is expected to test support at USD 16,300/mt.
The rest 45% expect SHFE 1605 tin to fluctuate at RMB 103,000-106,000/mt and spot tin in Shanghai at RMB 106,500-109,500/mt. SHFE tin has met strong resistance at the 5-day and 40-day moving averages, but has found support at the 60-day moving average. LME tin is expected to test resistance at USD 16,800/mt and support at USD 16,300/mt.
