Copper Prices to Draw Little Support from China Output Cut News Next Week

Mongolia’s Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority reported that the October 2026 international market reference price for exported molybdenum was $74,031.14/t, up 0.8% from September’s $73,475.58/t. The October value is based on the September 2026 average and is published under Article 47 of the Minerals Law and related government resolutions. It is an official export-mineral reference price—not an Erdenet concentrate auction result or an oxide spot quote. The page does not specify product form or grade.

Philex Mining Corp. disclosed to the Philippine Stock Exchange on October 13 that a labor strike at its Padcal copper-gold mine began on October 11 following a deadlock in collective bargaining negotiations. The company said mining and milling operations remained at normal levels on the first day of the strike, with no material impact on production reported. Philex estimated that around 65% of scheduled rank-and-file employees and supervisors reported for duty. Management and supervisors also took over some positions affected by worker absences. The company said Padcal’s production and operations remained substantially uninterrupted. Further discussions between the company and the union are being conducted under the framework of the National Conciliation and Mediation Board–Cordillera Administrative Region (NCMB-CAR), with the Department of Labor and Employment inviting both sides to additional meetings. The strike followed disagreements over wage adjustments and a new collective bargaining agreement. In a September 22 strike vote, union members voted 757 in favor, 100 against and six spoiled ballots, authorising industrial action. Philex had previously said the union’s demands exceeded what the company could currently accommodate given its financial and operating conditions. The company reported a net loss of Php200.4 million in the first half of 2026, mainly due to unrealised foreign-exchange losses from the revaluation of US dollar-denominated debt. Padcal produced approximately 18.2 million pounds of copper in 2025, equivalent to around 8,235 tonnes of contained copper. Output in the first half of 2026 was approximately 5.26 million pounds, or 2,385 tonnes, after disruptions related to rehabilitation work at the mill’s crushing section. The mine’s life has been extended to December 2028.Padcal is one of the Philippines’ oldest and largest copper-gold mines.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper: Opened at $14,678.5/mt, hit a high of $14,686/mt, a low of $14,605/mt, and closed at $14,621.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume was 14,700 lots, and open interest was 261,000 lots, an increase of 1,029 lots from the previous trading day, driven by long-side positioning. The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract: Opened at 111,270 yuan/mt, hit a high of 111,340 yuan/mt, a low of 110,820 yuan/mt, and closed at 110,890 yuan/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume was 21,000 lots, and open interest was 195,000 lots, a decrease of 418 lots from the previous trading day, driven by short-side position reduction.