Geopolitical disturbances interwoven with hawkish signals, copper prices retreat after rapid rise [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Oct 13, 2026 09:00 (GMT+8)

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SMM, October 13: Overnight, LME copper closed up 0.49%, driven by increased long positions; SHFE copper closed up 0.11%, driven by reduced short positions. On the macro front, an Iranian oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping risks in the Middle East. Combined with hawkish remarks from US Fed official Hammack and rising crude oil prices, copper prices shot up and then pulled back overnight. Copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.

1. Overnight Futures LME copper: Opened at $14,678.5/mt, hit a high of $14,686/mt, a low of $14,605/mt, and closed at $14,621.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume was 14,700 lots, and open interest was 261,000 lots, up 1,029 lots from the previous trading day, driven by increased long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract: Opened at 111,270 yuan/mt, hit a high of 111,340 yuan/mt, a low of 110,820 yuan/mt, and closed at 110,890 yuan/mt, up 0.11%. Trading volume was 21,000 lots, and open interest was 195,000 lots, down 418 lots from the previous trading day, driven by reduced short positions.

2. Macro Front Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz early Monday, reigniting shipping risks in the Middle East. Foreign media reported that the US sought to soften Russia's stance through a diesel agreement, but Putin insisted on fully taking Donbas. US Fed official Hammack said future rate hikes remain possible, with timing undecided, favoring "smaller, more frequent" adjustments. Driven by rising crude oil prices, copper prices shot up and then pulled back overnight.

3. Fundamentals Supply side: Concentrated arrivals of imported copper increased Shanghai inventories, easing the tightness of available supply, with suppliers showing strong willingness to sell. Demand side: High copper prices and wide price spreads between futures contracts suppressed purchasing, with downstream buying mainly need-based and limited willingness to chase higher prices, leaving demand weak. Inventories: As of Monday, October 12, SMM copper inventories across major Chinese regions rose 34,000 mt WoW to above 100,000 mt, with total inventories down 64,300 mt from around 170,000 mt in the same period last year.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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