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[Metal Price] Metals and Currencies Daily Market Watch August 07, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade
Aug 7,2015 15:32CST
industry news
Gold futures slightly retreated for a 10th day in the longest run of losses since 1996 as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines and investors sold more through funds.

By   07 Aug 2015  Last updated at  03:49:02 GMT

Macro Headlines

•US weekly unemployment claims came in at 270,000 below the forecast of 273,000, while Challenger Job Cuts year-over-year in July rose 125.4%, wildly outpacing the previous month's gain of 42.7%

•Bank of England policy officials voted 8-1 to hold rates at record and showed concern of sterling strength could damp inflation

•German factory orders rose 2% more-than-expected of 0.2% in June

•Oil slumps to multi-month lows on supply glut, stronger dollar

•The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be closely watched amid speculation of a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve in its September 16-17 meeting


 • USDINR: The rupee ended marginally lower against the US dollar as state-owned banks' dollar purchases offset the impact of greenback sales by foreign banks. US jobless claims data in line with estimates stabilized dollar index around 97.8 levels. The rupee ended at 63.7650 a dollar as against Wednesday close of 63.7500. Dollar index stabilized around 97 levels. USDINR likely to fluctuate in choppy trading in the range of 63.80-64.50 ahead of very crucial US monthly jobs report.

•EURINR: EURUSD steadied around 1.09 levels on various mixed sentiments the market have emerged in terms of US jobs report likely to deliver rate hike decision and European trade data. EURINR expected to trade in range of Rs.69.50-70.20.


• Base Metals: Base metals Base metals apart from copper ended yesterday in negative territory on the LME when a firmer dollar and low seasonal demand did little to lift the mood in the complex. Copper firmed as getting benefit of supply concerns from Chile and Zambia. Aluminum closed at $1,592.50, down $2.50. Oversupply is weighing on the price, traders said. Stocks and cancelled warrants continued to fall, both down 9,525 tonnes at 3,404,475 tonnes and 1,398,825 tonnes respectively. Nickel edged $10 lower to end at $10,850; stocks rose 564 tonnes to 458,490 tonnes. Zinc at $1,867 was down $26 - stocks fell 1,225 tonnes to 429,650 tonnes and cancelled warrants dropped 1,725 tonnes to 78,125 tonnes. In spreads, the tightness has eased, with the nearby curve now in a contango. Lead at $1,705 fell $21. Stocks fell 2,300 tonnes to 212,800 tonnes while cancelled warrants climbed 1,525 tonnes to 56,500 tonnes. Today there will metal fluctuations in both the sides depending on dollar move until US jobs report releases. 

Event Country Time (IST) Estimates
Trade BalanceEuro Zone11.30 am23.2B
Trade BalanceUK02.00 pm-9.1B
Nonfarm payrollsUS06.00 pm220K
Unemployment rateUS06: 00 pm5.3%

Precious Metals: In the last trading, Gold prices trended higher after US equities and the dollar pared early gains. Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange raised $4.50 to settle at $1,090.10. Trade ranged from $1,082.70 to $1,093.30.US jobless claims remained slightly bearish for the counter but as market is majorly tracking US nonfarm payrolls report due to release tonight. The aforementioned US non-farm employment report for July is projected to show 224,000 added jobs. The data point is one of the last key labour indicators that the Federal Reserve can use to gauge the status of the US economy before deciding whether to raise rates or not in September. Lower than expected data may lend support to the metals. Gold is expected to trade in the range of $1070-$1100 with huge volatile sessions ahead of uncertain US jobs report likely to deliver more clues for rate hike from Federal Reserve. Silver expected to take support of 32800 levels.

Energy: Oil traded near the lowest level in more than four months amid speculation a global glut that drove prices into a bear market will be prolonged. WTI fell to $44 while Brent traded close to a six-month low, amid perceptions that a global supply glut may stick around for much longer than once anticipated. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the global crude oversupply is running at 2 million barrels a day and storage may be filled by the fall, forcing the market to adjust. Natural gas futures reversed losses to trade modestly higher on Thursday, after data showed that U.S. natural gas supplies rose less than expected last week. Natural gas delivery in September on the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on 0.8 cents, or 0.3%, to trade at $2.806 per million British thermal units. As per the earlier forecast gas unlikely to sustain below 177 thus buying on dips can be done with stop loss below 177 for the target of 181-183 levels. Crude selling still can be continued with stop loss above 2940.

LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)

Change in
Change in
CW % of
Aluminum-95253404475-0139882541.09Cancelled warrants in Rotterdam reached to record
Copper775351600725241756.88Stockpiles rise 3.3% to highest since July
Nickel564458490531615544233.9Stocks reached to record higher levels
Lead-230021280038255650026.55Stockpiles Climb 29%, Most Since September 2004
Zinc-12254296502507812518.18Inventories dropped to 7 years low

Trend Watch

MCX Resistance Support Comments
Gold 2490024650A break below 24650 will see prices dip towards 24300/24250.
Silver 3375033300A break below 33300 will open up downside targets of 32800/32500.
Crude oil 29202725Next support areas between 2770—2725 is likely to be tested.
Copper 337330Sideways between 337—330. A daily close below 330 will be negative for copper.
Nickel710675Negative view until prices stay below 710 levels. Can test 680/675.
Zinc 123.05116.50Prices can correct further towards next support between 116.50—116 zones.
Lead 110107Until prices stay below 110 will slide lower towards 107.30/107 levels.
Natural Gas183.50176.50Failure to break above 183.50 will see prices retrace towards 176.50/174.50 again.
USDINR64.3063.85Negative outlook on the pair until prices stay below 64.30

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade

Emkay Commotrade Ltd.
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