SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-6-26)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 26 (SMM) – LME lead moved in a narrow range of USD 1,785-1,800/mt on Thursday evening and closed up USD 6/mt at USD 1,797/mt. Trading volumes fell 897 to 2,630 lots and positions dropped 485 to 138,425. LME lead inventories increased 950 to 172,525 mt.

Friday will see US final University of Michigan’s CCI for June and China’s profit number of large industrials in May will be out this weekend. Greece debt crisis issue continues. Thus, investors may remain cautious today.

Greece failed to come up with a new agreement with its creditors again at eurozone meeting yesterday, driving markets worries up. But IMF expressed that Greece will pay USD 1.7 billion due next Tuesday.

Economic indicators were mixed. US May’s PCE rose 0.9% MoM, higher than 0.7% expected and hitting a 6-year high. US initial jobless claims rose 3,000 MoM in May, 1,000 lower than expected but still in a low level. Flash data of June’s service PMI was 54.8, falling short of the 56.5 expected and a new low since January 2015.

The People's Bank of China conducted RMB 35 billion of reverse-repurchase operations Thursday for seven days, cutting bidding rate down to 2.7% from previous 3.35%. News came that China is promising to own 26% voting power in Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank but China’s Financial Ministry has not published any relative data.

US dollar index edged down 0.07% to 95.18 and crude oil price fell 0.95% to 59.7. US stocks all dropped while European stocks diverged. LME base metals ended down except aluminum.

Markets expect LME lead to be in USD 1,785-1,810/mt today. SHFE 1508 lead should hover at low between RMB 13,040-13,140/mt with investors buying LME lead and selling Chinese futures. Spot lead may fall RMB 25/mt to RMB 13,300-13,450/mt.