SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, September 14
Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,860/mt. After the open, LME zinc drifted higher, touching a high of $3,918/mt, then pulled back repeatedly from highs, dipping to $3,847/mt during the session. It subsequently rebounded to near the daily average and closed up at $3,863.5/mt, up $8.5/mt, or 0.22%. Trading volume fell to 18,743 lots, and open interest rose by 3,517 lots to 264,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2610 contract opened at 26,650 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc consolidated around the daily average, touching a high of 26,785 yuan/mt near the opening and dipping to 26,550 yuan/mt during the session. It closed down at 26,560 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt, or 0.91%. Trading volume fell to 73,922 lots, and open interest fell by 4,087 lots to 117,000 lots.
Macro: Trump claimed a US-Canada agreement may be reached soon; an ECB Governing Council member said high oil prices may force the ECB to raise rates further; AI giants called for slowing AI model development, while Trump downplayed concerns; US August core CPI MoM beat expectations, sharply lifting the probability of a US Fed rate hike in September; Hassett and Trump both saw no reason to hike rates; the meeting between Iran and Gulf states originally scheduled for Monday was postponed; Saudi Arabia's east-west crude pipeline was shut preventively, potentially causing a loss of 4% of global oil supply.
Spot market:
Shanghai: Last Friday, refined zinc procurement sentiment in Shanghai was 2.10, and selling sentiment was 2.50. Last Friday morning, zinc ingot prices on the futures fell significantly. Downstream enterprises actively priced at lows starting from Thursday night, overall spot trades in the market improved notably, traders sold actively, and spot premiums rose accordingly.
Guangdong: Last Friday, refined zinc procurement sentiment in Guangdong was 1.8, and selling sentiment was 2.4. Zinc price center moved lower. Downstream enterprises in Guangdong began pricing from Thursday night session, market trading activity increased, pushing up spot premiums in Guangdong.
Tianjin: Last Friday, refined zinc procurement sentiment in Tianjin was 1.69, and selling sentiment was 2.39. Last Friday, futures fell sharply. Some downstream enterprises began pricing previously deferred orders from Thursday night, and a few enterprises made need-based purchases to stockpile. However, most downstream enterprises still had psychological prices around 26,000 yuan/mt, and with limited improvement in actual demand, most downstream enterprises remained on the sidelines. Traders slightly raised selling premiums, and market transactions improved MoM last Friday.
Ningbo: Last Friday, zinc prices on the futures fell significantly. Downstream enterprises actively priced at lows. Last Friday morning, overall spot trades improved, but downstream feedback indicated no clear improvement in orders, actual procurement volume was limited, and market premiums edged up.
Social inventory: On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,775 mt to 109,575 mt, a decline of 1.59%; according to SMM market communication, as of September 10, China's inventory edged down slightly.
Zinc price forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average above forming resistance. The US CPI data exceeded expectations, driving up the probability of a US Fed rate hike in September, and the US dollar index rose MoM. However, zinc ingot exports have not yet been reflected in LME warehouses, and persistently low LME inventory continues to provide some support for LME zinc, which is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 40-day moving average below providing support. During the night session, bulls reduced some positions, but on the fundamentals side, TC remained at low levels, and continued inventory destocking provided support for zinc ingot. Overall, SHFE zinc opened lower and moved lower, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![SHFE zinc bulls reduce positions, night session consolidates at lows [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/oTrxc20251217171755.jpg)
