Metals News
SMM Base Metals Market Daily Review (2014-11-14)
price review forecast
Nov 18,2014

SHANGHAI, Nov. 18 (SMM) –

Copper for January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, started at RMB 47,490/mt during Thursday’s night session, and then slid to RMB 47,360/mt. The price of the SHFE 1501 copper contract later tracked LME copper down sharply to RMB 47,150/mt and ended down RMB 170/mt, or 0.36%, at RMB 47,230/mt. During the night session, positions for the most active contract gained 7,904 lots to 320,980 lots, and trading volumes totaled 106,120 lots.

On Friday, SHFE copper swung by some RMB 100/mt during the morning trading session, hovering around RMB 47,160/mt. The price of red metal dipped to RMB 46,890/mt afterwards, depressed by a pullback in LME copper, but later rebounded to close down RMB 240/mt, or 0.51%, at RMB 47,160/mt. The SHFE 1502 copper contract finished down RMB 290/mt at RMB 46,760/mt, with positions up by 11,502 lots.

Physical copper in Shanghai was quoted Friday at a RMB 80-160/mt discount to the SHFE 1411 copper contract. Traded prices were RMB 47,700-47,740/mt for standard-quality copper and RMB 47,720-47,780/mt for high-quality copper.

Since the price gap between the SHFE 1411 and 1412 copper contracts remained large at RMB 300/mt, cargo holders rushed to sell, quoting prices at a discount above RMB 100/mt. High-quality copper was quoted at RMB 80/mt after the price gap narrowed by the midday. Downstream producers stayed largely on the sidelines on Friday, leaving trading activity light.

As SHFE copper slipped further during the afternoon trading, physical copper traded at RMB 47,750-47,840/mt. SHFE copper inventories for the week ending November 14 decreased 1,430 mt to 88,140 mt.

Last Thursday night, SHFE 1501 aluminum contract dropped to RMB 13,730/mt after starting at RMB 13,780/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,750/mt. Trading volumes totaled 27,952 lots, with positions up 338 lots to 149,088 lots.

Last Friday, the most active contract slumped to RMB 13,660/mt as investors withdrew after LME aluminum prices tumbled. Finally, the light metal ended at RMB 13,665/mt. Trading volumes totaled 43,800 lots, with positions down 7,886 lots to 141,202 lots.

Spot aluminum largely traded at RMB 13,660-13,670/mt in Shanghai last Friday, discounts of RMB 10-20/mt over SHFE 1411 aluminum contract, versus RMB 13,650-13,660/mt in Wuxi and RMB 13,690-13,700/mt in Hangzhou. Rising SHFE aluminum prices and growing downstream demand pushed spot aluminum prices up slightly. In the afternoon, a few cut offers slightly after SHFE aluminum fell, but trading turned muted.

Lead for January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, hovered at RMB 13,480-13,510/mt during Thursday’s night session after opening at RMB 13,500/mt, and ended down RMB 70/mt at RMB 13,470/mt. During the night session, trading volumes for the SHFE 1501 lead contract totaled 1,202 lots, and positions increased 428 lots to 16,166 lots.

On Friday, SHFE lead fluctuated largely at RMB 13,450-13,480/mt, and finished down RMB 90/mt at RMB 13,450/mt. Trading volumes and positions for the SHFE 1501 lead contract both fell.

Chihong Zn & Ge, Tongguan, Nanfang, and Chengyuan brands in Shanghai traded last Friday at RMB 13,510-13,520/mt, an around RMB 40/mt premium to the most active SHFE 1501 lead contract. Yubei warehouse warrants were sold at RMB 13,500/mt. Chihong Zn & Ge and Tongguan sold in light volumes, whereas increasing quantities of hedged goods from traders flowed to the market. Downstream producers, however, were unwilling to buy, out of fears that prices may fall.

SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices opened at RMB 16,760/mt Thursday evening, finding support from USD 16,800/mt, and closing at RMB 16620/mt, down RMB 145/mt or 0.86%. Trading volumes were up 41,442 to 179,562 lots, and total positions increased 7,180 to 171,220 lots. SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices opened at RMB 16,620/mt Friday, then fluctuated between RMB 16,570-16,630/mt due to sluggish economic indicators from China and the US, and closing at RMB 16,590/mt, down RMB 175/mt or 1.04%. Trading volumes were up 65,702 to 325,412 lots, and total positions decreased 2,104 to 161,936 lots. SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices should test support from the 20-day moving average this evening.

#0 zinc prices were between RMB 16,880-16,940/mt, with spot premiums of RMB 260-340/mt against SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. #1 zinc prices were between RMB 16,810-16,820/mt, RMB 210/mt above SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices fluctuated around RMB 16,600/mt, down RMB 100-150/mt from the previous trading day, and with spot premiums between RMB 260-340/mt. Smelters sold actively on year-end cash flow tightness, with spot premiums of RMB 50/mt against SHFE spot-month zinc contract prices. Cargo holders also sold off goods in anticipation of narrower spot discounts. Traders, however, purchased modestly. Downstream buyers entered the market at lower prices, causing overall transactions to improve. Shuangyan #0 zinc prices were RMB 16,930-16,940/mt, RMB 320-340/mt above SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. Yuguang #0 zinc prices were RMB 16,900/mt, RMB 300/mt above SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. Qinxin, Hongda, Jiulong, Baiyin and Mengzi zinc prices were RMB 16,880-16,900/mt, with premiums of RMB 280/mt against SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. Tiefeng zinc prices were RMB 16,880/mt, with premiums of RMB 260-280/mt against SHFE 1501 zinc contract prices. SHFE 1501 zinc prices fell RMB 10/mt in the afternoon, but spot premiums remained flat, with purchases muted.

In Shanghai spot tin market, mainstream traded prices dropped RMB 500/mt to RMB 134,000-137,000/mt last Friday, tracking LME tin. Nanshan and Jinlong brand tin traded at RMB 134,000/mt, while goods from Yunnan traded between RMB 134,500-136,000/mt. Falling prices lured buyers in.

SMM #1 nickel prices were between RMB 104,100-104,400/mt, RMB 400/mt below 1412 nickel contract on the Wuxi electronic trading in the morning. As LME nickel prices rose, traded prices were up to RMB 104,800-105,000/mt, also RMB 400/mt below 1412 nickel contract on the Wuxi electronic trading in the morning, with trading brisk. Jinchuan lowered nickel prices RMB 1,500/mt to RMB 104,300/mt.

SHFE copper prices
SHFE aluminum prices
SHFE lead prices
SHFE zinc prices
Shanghai tin prices
Shanghai nickel prices
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