UNITED STATES October 16 2014 11:01 AM
NEW YORK (Scrap Register): Societe Generale is cautious on platinum group metals and downwardly revised its forecasts.
Prices have tumbled in recent weeks, and while speculators remain net long, their bullish positioning has fallen since mid-August as the number of shorts increased,
According to Societe Generale, outflows from exchange-traded funds have occurred. South African production has ramped up from a strike faster than expected, and there is a realization existing above-ground stocks may be more than once thought.
Further, PGMs fell with gold as the dollar strengthened in recent weeks, although the opposite is the case so far Wednesday. Despite favorable supply/demand fundamentals, platinum is likely to come under pressure again if gold comes back under pressure.
As a result, SocGen price targets in the short to medium term look overly ambitious and they are revising down their average price this year and in 2015 to $1,410 an ounce (from $1,450/oz previously) and $1,450/oz (from $1,500/oz previously), respectively.
In the case of palladium, SocGen is revising down their average price this year and in 2015 to $810 an ounce (from $835/oz previously) and $920/oz (from $950/oz previously), respectively.