September Copper Outlook Rests on Central Bank Moves, China’s Potential Stimulus, SMM Interviews

SHANGHAI, Aug. 29 (SMM) – History shows copper prices usually trend up in September, as boom season for copper consuming sectors, including property and electric power, sets in. This year, however, influence of the peak-demand season seemed to be played down.

“The sharp decline in housing investment and slower-than-expected growth in power grid investment in the first seven months mean the arrival of high demand season may not provide a substantial lift to copper prices this year,” analyst from Guotai Junan Futures told SMM in a recent interview.

Utilization rates at copper rod and copper tube/pipe producers were slipping, while copper production at smelters is expected to increase. In addition, the resumption of Indonesia’s copper concentrate export may also pose pressure on copper prices.

“We now believe copper prices in September will be mainly influenced by the moves of central banks in major economies and the Chinese government", the analyst added, "It remains to be seen whether the Chinese government will launch more pro-growth measures. "

Results from the policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, the “targeted interest rate cut” by China’s central bank, and orders from electric power sector will be the focuses for September copper market.


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