SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Aug. 4-8, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Aug. 4 (SMM) – Last week, SHFE 1410 aluminum contract dropped to RMB 13,930/mt as investors took profits at highs, but then rallied above RMB 14,000/mt, drawing support from strong lead and zinc prices. In China’s physical markets, sellers did not rush to sell when SHFE aluminum prices slumped, and held offers firm once SHFE aluminum prices rebounded. Traders showed little buying interest, while downstream buyers replenished stocks in small amounts against tight cash at the month’s end.   

 

This coming week, the most active SHFE aluminum contract has found strong support at RMB 14,000/mt and is likely to move in a tight RMB 14,000-14,200/mt range since positions are still on the rise. In China’s spot markets, downstream demand is expected to pick up with the easing of liquidity crunch at the start of new month. Any improvement in consumption will be limited, though, since August is a traditional offseason. Cargo holders will sell normally. Spot discounts are expected at RMB 10-60/mt over SHFE 1408 aluminum contract.