SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Jul. 14-18, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 15 (SMM) – Last week, SHFE 1409 aluminum contract moved higher before surrendering gains due to profit-taking, a sign that investors see no sustainable price rise in the near term. The most active contract did find support at medium- and long-term moving averages, though. In China’s physical markets, goods did not arrive in large quantity and inventories continued to fall, but cargo holders did not hold offers firm out of bearishness. Besides, buyers held to the sidelines, also forcing sellers to cut offers.  

This coming week, poor market sentiment will keep the most active SHFE aluminum contract within a RMB 13,550-13,750/mt range. In China’s spot markets, consumption will remain sluggish in the offseason, with spot discounts of RMB 40-90/mt expected over SHFE front-month aluminum contract.