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SMM Aluminum Market Daily Review (2014-7-14)
Jul 15,2014 09:46CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
Last Friday night, SHFE 1409 aluminum contract advanced to RMB 13,695/mt after starting at RMB 13,635/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,660/mt.

SHANGHAI, Jul. 15 (SMM) – Last Friday night, SHFE 1409 aluminum contract advanced to RMB 13,695/mt after starting at RMB 13,635/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,660/mt. Trading volumes totaled 33,226 lots, with positions up 938 lots to 149,262 lots. On Monday, the most active contract fell back after touching RMB 13,695/mt, closing the day at RMB 13,640/mt. Trading volumes totaled 22,474 lots, with positions down 38,844 lots to 145,418 lots.  

Spot aluminum largely traded between RMB 13,470-13,480/mt in Shanghai on Monday, a discount of RMB 30-40/mt over SHFE 1407 aluminum contract. Mainstream traded prices were RMB 13,480-13,490/mt in Wuxi and RMB 13,490-13,500/mt in Hangzhou. Sellers held offers firm since delivery of SHFE 1407 aluminum contract is approaching. Higher offers drove downstream producers to buy only as needed. In the afternoon, rising SHFE aluminum encouraged sellers to hike offers to RMB 13,480-13,490/mt, with trading being decent.

SMM’s recent survey of 34 large aluminum smelters and traders in China reveals the following results: 

71% of the market players surveyed are bullish that spot aluminum prices will rise above RMB 13,500/mt this week. The most active SHFE aluminum contract is on track to move higher to RMB 13,650-13,800/mt. Strong SHFE 1408 aluminum contract will become the new front-month contract tomorrow, boosting market sentiment. Besides, few arrivals will allow cargo holders to ask for higher prices. 
 
The remaining 29% see spot aluminum prices little changed between RMB 13,450-13,500/mt. Caution will dominate will the market before China’s Q2 GDP is released, keeping SHFE 1409 aluminum contract in check within RMB 13,580-13,700/mt. Sellers in spot markets will hold offers firm, but buyers will shy away from higher offers, preventing traded prices from rising. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SHFE aluminum prices
Shanghai aluminum prices

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