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SMM Aluminum Market Daily Review (2014-7-7)
Jul 8, 2014 09:07Last Friday night, SHFE 1409 aluminum contract drifted lower after starting at RMB 13,665/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,605/mt.
SHANGHAI, Jul. 8 (SMM) – Last Friday night, SHFE 1409 aluminum contract drifted lower after starting at RMB 13,665/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,605/mt. Trading volumes totaled 20,142 lots, with positions down 40 lots to 159,510 lots. On Monday, the most active contract retreated from the 20-day moving average to RMB 13,555/mt before ending down RMB 130/mt at RMB 13,560/mt. Trading volumes totaled 33,982 lots, with positions down 4,254 lots to 155,256 lots. With investors closing long positions, prices may test support at the 30-day moving average in the near term.
Spot aluminum largely traded between RMB 13,400-13,410/mt in Shanghai and Wuxi on Monday, a discount of RMB 40-50/mt over SHFE 1407 aluminum contract, versus RMB 13,410-13,420/mt in Hangzhou. Growing supply and bearish sentiment among downstream producers sent prices down. In the afternoon, sellers cut offers slightly to RMB 13,390-13,400/mt, with sparse transactions reported.
SMM’s recent survey of large aluminum smelters and traders in China reveals the following results:
Only 13% of the market players surveyed are bullish that spot aluminum prices will rise above RMB 13,450/mt this week. The most active SHFE aluminum contract is expected to follow LME aluminum up to RMB 13,600-13,700/mt. Meanwhile, arrivals into major trading markets remain limited, also lending support to prices.
Another 57% see spot aluminum prices little changed between RMB 13,380-13,440/mt. SHFE 1409 aluminum contract has found strong support, but will meet resistance at the upper end, with prices expected to hold largely stable between RMB 13,550-13,650/mt. In physical markets, sellers will hold back at lows, while buyers will shy away from higher prices, keeping prices in check.
The remaining 30% worry that spot aluminum prices will retreat below RMB 13,380/mt. On the technical side, the most active SHFE aluminum contract appears set to face downward pressure, with prices expected between RMB 13,480-13,550/mt. Buyers in physical markets will show little interest out of bearishness, boding ill for aluminum prices.
SHFE aluminum prices
Shanghai aluminum prices
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.
For queries, please contact Lemon Zhao at lemonzhao@smm.cn
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