Home / Metal News / Nickel / SMM Aluminum Market Daily Review (2014-4-28)
SMM Aluminum Market Daily Review (2014-4-28)
Apr 29,2014 08:33CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
Last Friday night, SHFE 1407 aluminum contract slipped to RMB 13,500/mt after starting at RMB 13,570/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,540/mt.

SHANGHAI, Apr. 29 (SMM) – Last Friday night, SHFE 1407 aluminum contract slipped to RMB 13,500/mt after starting at RMB 13,570/mt, and finished the night session at RMB 13,540/mt. Trading volumes totaled 17,268 lots, and positions contracted 298 lots to 116,516 lots. On Monday, the most active contract erased gains after a brief foray into RMB 13,615/mt, ending the day at RMB 13,535/mt. Trading volumes totaled 32,134 lots, and positions shrank 768 lots to 115,748 lots.

Spot aluminum largely traded at RMB 13,430-13,440/mt in Shanghai, RMB 13,440-13,460/mt in Wuxi, and RMB 13,440-13,500/mt in Hangzhou on Monday. Cargo holders were eager to sell at highs, but buyers in general stayed out of the market. In the afternoon, sellers cut offers to RMB 13,410-13,420/mt, with few deals completed.
 

SMM surveyed 42 large aluminum smelters and traders in China.

48% of the market players are optimistic that spot aluminum prices will climb above RMB 13,500/mt this week. First, LME aluminum looks set to move higher to USD 1,850-1,900/mt and SHFE 1407 aluminum contract will also advance to RMB 13,500-13,800/mt on dip-buying. Second, traders will show high buying interest out of bullishness and downstream producers increase raw material purchases ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday.

Another 38% see spot aluminum prices little changed between RMB 13,420-13,500/mt. First, the most active SHFE aluminum contract will face correction following sharp rises, with prices expected to hover narrowly above RMB 13,500/mt. Second, demand in spot aluminum markets will wane since most downstream producers finished stock buildup a week ago. 

The remaining 14% are worried that spot aluminum prices may retreat below RMB 13,420/mt. First, the KDJ indicator of LME aluminum is pointing downward and tensions over the Ukraine crisis has escalated, so LME aluminum may move lower to USD 1,830-1,870/mt. Second, SHFE 1407 aluminum contract will fall back to RMB 13,400-13,500/mt as investors will book profits at highs. Third, sellers in physical markets will be anxious to liquidate inventories ahead of the May Day holiday, compounding oversupply pressure. 
 

 
 

SHFE aluminum prices
Shanghai aluminum prices

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news