SMM Lead Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Mar. 24-28, 2014)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 24 (SMM) – The most active SHFE 1405 lead contract price rebounded last week to RMB 13,750/mt, up from RMB 13,750/mt, and rising above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Positions gained over 100 lots.SHFE lead prices are expected to move between RMB 13,650-13,800/mt after rising for a four straight trading days last week.

Spot lead prices rose by around RMB 50/mt in the Guangdong, Shanghai, and Henan markets, but rose by over RMB 100/mt in Tianjin due to shortages caused by cuts in output at Liaoning Haicheng. Rising lead prices encouraged lead smelters to move goods, but downstream producers still purchased on an as-needed basis out of fears that lead prices would soon fall. Trading activity in the physical market was up slightly last week.In China’s physical lead markets, traded prices will be mostly between RMB 13,650-13,800/mt. Lead smelters will be forced to increase sales due to bank loan repayments at the end of the first quarter. However, lead-acid battery producers will have low buying interest since their cash flows are also tight and since they have sufficient finished goods inventories.