SMM Nickel Market Daily Review (2013-11-11)

SHANGHAI, Nov. 12 (SMM) – In Shanghai, transactions improved, with spot prices falling to a low level with LME nickel prices. Trader confidence increased as a large number of investors entered the market. SMM #1 nickel prices were between RMB 96,400-97,400/mt, with mainstream traded prices within SMM price range.

SMM undertook a survey of 36 market players and found that 17% believe LME nickel prices will rebound to RMB 14,000-14,300/mt this week. Although the US Federal Reserve announced October non-farm employment data improved, the unemployment rate remained high, which will leave QE3 in place for now. LME nickel prices did not meet strong resistance. Optimisitic economy in China and the opening of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will boost LME nickel prices.

50% think LME nickel prices will move between RMB 13,900-14,100/mt this week. The market will lack positive news, and the unexpected interest rate cut by European Central Bank and the improved US October non-farm employment data will push up the US dollar index above 81, which will weigh on LME nickel prices, but finding support from optimistic economy in China.

The remaining 33% see LME nickel prices falling below USD 13,900/mt, with the lack of solid news, high LME zinc inventories and sluggish demand. Besides, China’s October CPI and PPI shows China is still confronted with inflationary pressure, when combined with capital shortfalls, investors will leave the market.