SHANGHAI, Oct. 14 (SMM) – SHFE lead prices fell below the 5-day moving average last Tuesday, but later rose back to RMB 14,100/mt. Trade volumes contracted, but positions were growing in the SHFE lead market, a sign that longs still had the upper hand. SHFE lead prices will possibly rebound following upward trends of LME lead prices, but will still mostly fluctuate between RMB 250-14200/mt, up from RMB 14,100/mt last week, gaining support from short traders closing positions.
Spot lead prices traded last week between RMB 13,950-14,050/mt, but with transactions thin. Premiums for well-known brands over the SHFE current month lead contract prices declined to RMB 40/mt, down from around RMB 100/mt. Lead smelters sold aggressively in order to reduce inventories accumulated during Chinese National Day holiday and to generate capital necessary for stockpiling of lead concentrates. Most downstream producers stayed on the sidelines. Most downstream producers are expected to replenish stocks this week since they did not immediately following the holiday. Producers will also show more willingness to purchase as lead prices rise, giving additional support to spot lead prices. Supply will also grow since most deliverable goods will flow into markets and smelters trade aggressively to generate cash. Spot lead prices should rise steadily up to RMB 14,000-14,200/mt as both demand and supply increase.