Copper Premiums to Rise to $250 If China Stabilizes and LME Queues Stay

SHANGHAI, Jul. 17 (SMM) - Spot copper premiums would rise to $250 per ton in China in the fourth quarter if Chinese economy stabilizes and long queues stay at London Metal Exchange warehouses, according to a leading trading house.

The rise to $250 would be ``a matter of time'', the trading house’ top trader using an account name @穿着马甲的先总 made the forecast recently on Weibo, which is China’s equivalent of Twitter.

Yangshan Copper Premiums, published by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) daily, are at $155-185 per ton today, down moderately from as high as $190 per ton at the start of July.

Queues of six months have been formed at LME warehouses in Johor, Malaysia, which means people have to wait till December to take deliveries they ask now, the trader said.

Glencore’s warehousing company Pacorini and Goldman Sachs’ Metro have been widely speculated to be hoarding copper stocks in Johor to earn warehousing revenues and lift spot premiums.

Their behaviour has helped contributed to ``an emerging tightness’’ in copper supplies in China at a time when downstream demand has started to kick in, the trader said.

A recent survey by SMM showed that a majority of Chinese copper wire and cable producers expected steady order books even after summer low season sets in as construction of power grids, public works and commercial real estates continued.