SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2013-7-15)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 15 (SMM) – The US dollar index rebounded last Friday following two days of declines, keeping LME aluminum in check. Investors pulled out of the market ahead of the release of China’s 2Q GDP, causing trading volumes to fall to around 10,000 lots. LME aluminum broke through the 30-day moving average to USD 1,851.3/mt, but fell back at the tail of the session to close at USD 1,839.3/mt, up USD 7.8/mt or 0.42%. LME aluminum inventories fell 5,675 mt to 5,411,425 mt, but positions increased 3,558 lots to 768,923 lots.

The light metal will move within tight ranges ahead of the announcement of China’s 2Q GDP due today. LME aluminum should stagnate at USD 1,830/mt and move within USD 1,820-1,840/mt on Monday. SHFE 1310 aluminum contract will open flat at RMB 14,350/mt, with prices between RMB 14,300-14,380/mt. In spot market, spot aluminum prices will be higher than SHFE 1307 aluminum contract prices as SHFE 1308 aluminum contracts will become the new current-month contract tomorrow. Spot premium will be limited by oversupply, through. Spot discount of RMB 0-10/mt and premium of RMB 0-30/mt are expected over SHFE 1307 aluminum contract prices.